** WTNT80 EGRR 230600 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.11.2009 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230423 ** WTIO22 FMEE 230631 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 20 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTWESTERN QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/23 AT 18 UTC: 8.9S / 53.2E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/24 AT 06 UTC: 9.6S / 52.7E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: PRESSION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGH, AS ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSION REMAINS HIGH SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND HAS BEEN NAMED 'BONGANI' BY THE METEOROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICES OF MADAGASCAR.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 230631 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 003/05 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 23/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (BONGANI) 997 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 200 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DANS LE DEMI CERCLE NORD ET JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD OUEST PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 8.9S / 53.2E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 24/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 9.6S / 52.7E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA PRESSION AU CENTRE RESTE ELEVE EN RAISON DES HAUTS VALEURS DU CHAMP DE PRESSION ENVIRONNANT. LE SYSTEME S'EST INTENSIFIE RAPIDEMENT ET A ETE BAPTISE 'BONGANI' PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 230631 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 20 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTWESTERN QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/23 AT 18 UTC: 8.9S / 53.2E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/24 AT 06 UTC: 9.6S / 52.7E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: PRESSION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGH, AS ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSION REMAINS HIGH SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND HAS BEEN NAMED 'BONGANI' BY THE METEOROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICES OF MADAGASCAR.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 230631 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 20 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTWESTERN QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/23 AT 18 UTC: 8.9S / 53.2E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/24 AT 06 UTC: 9.6S / 52.7E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 230631 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 003/05 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 23/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (BONGANI) 997 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 200 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DANS LE DEMI CERCLE NORD ET JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD OUEST PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 8.9S / 53.2E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 24/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 9.6S / 52.7E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA PRESSION AU CENTRE RESTE ELEVE EN RAISON DES HAUTS VALEURS DU CHAMP DE PRESSION ENVIRONNANT. LE SYSTEME S'EST INTENSIFIE RAPIDEMENT ET A ETE BAPTISE 'BONGANI' PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 230600UTC 08.3N 147.8E POOR MOVE N 08KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT GUST 045KT FORECAST 24HF 240600UTC 09.0N 145.7E 120NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT = ** WTIO30 FMEE 230642 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 050 SO: 190 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/23 18 UTC: 08.9S/53.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 09.6S/52.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.1S/52.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.4S/51.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.8S/50.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 11.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=3.0-. CLASSICAL AND MW IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETRIC DATA SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS. SPECIALLY, LAST NIGHT MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICATIVELY IMPROVED. SYSTEM IS ANALYSED AT T:2.5 AT 23/00Z (CONFIRMED BY THA SAB ANALYSIS OF 23/0230Z WITH A TAT 2.5) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS STILL ON THE WAY AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 40 KT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AT 06Z AND NAMED 'BONGANI' BY THE NMS OF MADAGASCAR. 'BONGANI' IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THIS RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ALONG 50E. PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT SHOW A SLOW DOWN AND A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AT SHORT RANGE. THE MID -LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILT WEDNESDAY AND THE TRACK COULD BY THAT TIME TAKE A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT. THERE IS A LOT OF DISPERSION AMONG ALL THE AVAILABLE FORECAST TRACKS, SOME GUIDANCE(UKMO, LAM ALADIN-REUNION) HAVE A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALL FACTORS LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE ONLY LIMITING ELEMENT COULD BE THE INTRUSION WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF DRY SUBTROPICAL AIR CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSIFICATION PHILOSOPHY IS A CLIMATOLOGICAL ONE THAT BRING 'BONGANI' TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY 36 HOURS. IT IS NOT EXCLUDED THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD BE AT A FASTER RATE. BASED ON ALL THIS ELEMENT, INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHER TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230642 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 050 SO: 190 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/23 18 UTC: 08.9S/53.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 09.6S/52.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.1S/52.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.4S/51.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.8S/50.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 11.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=3.0-. CLASSICAL AND MW IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETRIC DATA SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS. SPECIALLY, LAST NIGHT MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICATIVELY IMPROVED. SYSTEM IS ANALYSED AT T:2.5 AT 23/00Z (CONFIRMED BY THA SAB ANALYSIS OF 23/0230Z WITH A TAT 2.5) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS STILL ON THE WAY AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 40 KT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AT 06Z AND NAMED 'BONGANI' BY THE NMS OF MADAGASCAR. 'BONGANI' IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THIS RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ALONG 50E. PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT SHOW A SLOW DOWN AND A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AT SHORT RANGE. THE MID -LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILT WEDNESDAY AND THE TRACK COULD BY THAT TIME TAKE A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT. THERE IS A LOT OF DISPERSION AMONG ALL THE AVAILABLE FORECAST TRACKS, SOME GUIDANCE(UKMO, lAM ALADIN-REUNION) HAVE A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALL FACTORS LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE ONLY LIMITING ELEMENT COULD BE THE INTRUSION WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF DRY SUBTROPICAL AIR CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSIFICATION PHILOSOPHY IS A CLIMATOLOGICAL ONE THAT BRING 'BONGANI' TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY 36 HOURS. IT IS NOT EXCLUDED THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD BE AT A FASTER RATE. BASED ON ALL THIS ELEMENT, INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHER TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ** WTIO31 FMEE 230642 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/5/20092010 1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 997 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 40 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 050 SO: 190 NO: 070 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 550 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 23/11/2009 18 UTC: 08.9S/53.2E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H: 24/11/2009 06 UTC: 09.6S/52.7E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 24/11/2009 18 UTC: 10.1S/52.1E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 48H: 25/11/2009 06 UTC: 10.4S/51.2E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 60H: 25/11/2009 18 UTC: 10.8S/50.1E, VENT MAX=085KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 72H: 26/11/2009 06 UTC: 11.5S/49.5E, VENT MAX=090KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=3.0-, CI=3.0-. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES, LES DONNES DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES ET LES DONNEES SATELLITES MONTRENT QUE LE SYSTEME S'EST INTENSIFIE SIGNIFICATIVEMENT SUR LES DERNIERES 18 HEURES. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT EN PARTICULIER MONTRENT QUE L'ORGANISATION DE BASSES COUCHES S'EST SIGNIFICATIVEMENT AMELIORE. LE SYSTEME EST ANALYSE A T:2.5 A 00 TU (ANALYSE CONFIRME PAR LE SAB A 02:30 TU AVEC T:2.5). LES DERNIERES IMAGES MONTRENT QUE LA TENDANCE A L'INTENSIFICATION SE POURSUIT ET LE SYSTEME EST CLASSE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS MOYENS A 40 KT ET BAPTISE 'BONGANI' PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR . 'BONGANI' SE TROUVENT MAINTENANT EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET QU'UNE FAIBLESSE SE DESSINE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE AU NIVEAU DE 50E. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DE L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES ET QUI PENCHENT POUR UN RALENTISSEM ENT ASSEZ NET DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME ET UNE INCURVATION FRANCHE VERS LE SUD-OUEST A COURT TERME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA RECONSTITUTION DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD POURRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE REPRENDRE UNE COMPOSANTE UN PEU PLUS VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. IL EST A NOTER QUE LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE DES TRAJECTOIRES DES MODELES EST ASSEZ FORTE , CERTAINS MODELES COMME LE UKMO ET ALADIN-REUNION PROPOSENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS ZONALE QUE LA PRESENTE PREVISION. AU NIVEAU DE L'INTENSITE, QUASIMENT TOUS LES FACTEURS SONT FAVORABLES. LE SEUL ELEMENT LIMITANT POURRAIT ETRE L'INTRUSION AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION D'AIR SUBTROPICAL PLUS FRAIS ET SEC ACTUELLEMENT PRESENT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. L'INTENSIFICATION RETENUE EST UNE INTENSIFICATION CLIMATO LOGIQUE QUI EMMENE 'BONGANI' AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL A 36 HEURES D'ECHEANCE. IL N'EST PAS EXCLU QUE CETTE INTENSIFICATION SE FASSE A UN RYTHME PLUS SOUTENU. EN TENANT COMPTE DES ELEMENTS CI-DESSUS, LES ZONES HABITEES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES FAHQUAR, DU NORD DE MADAGASCAR AINSI QUE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET MAYOTTE DOIVENT SUIVRE AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230642 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 050 SO: 190 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/23 18 UTC: 08.9S/53.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 09.6S/52.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.1S/52.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.4S/51.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.8S/50.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 11.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=3.0-. CLASSICAL AND MW IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETRIC DATA SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS. SPECIALLY, LAST NIGHT MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICATIVELY IMPROVED. SYSTEM IS ANALYSED AT T:2.5 AT 23/00Z (CONFIRMED BY THA SAB ANALYSIS OF 23/0230Z WITH A TAT 2.5) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS STILL ON THE WAY AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 40 KT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AT 06Z AND NAMED 'BONGANI' BY THE NMS OF MADAGASCAR. 'BONGANI' IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THIS RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ALONG 50E. PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT SHOW A SLOW DOWN AND A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AT SHORT RANGE. THE MID -LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILT WEDNESDAY AND THE TRACK COULD BY THAT TIME TAKE A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT. THERE IS A LOT OF DISPERSION AMONG ALL THE AVAILABLE FORECAST TRACKS, SOME GUIDANCE(UKMO, LAM ALADIN-REUNION) HAVE A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALL FACTORS LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE ONLY LIMITING ELEMENT COULD BE THE INTRUSION WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF DRY SUBTROPICAL AIR CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSIFICATION PHILOSOPHY IS A CLIMATOLOGICAL ONE THAT BRING 'BONGANI' TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY 36 HOURS. IT IS NOT EXCLUDED THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD BE AT A FASTER RATE. BASED ON ALL THIS ELEMENT, INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHER TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230642 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 050 SO: 190 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/23 18 UTC: 08.9S/53.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 09.6S/52.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.1S/52.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.4S/51.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.8S/50.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 11.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=3.0-. CLASSICAL AND MW IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETRIC DATA SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS. SPECIALLY, LAST NIGHT MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL ORGANISATION END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 230642 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/5/20092010 1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.5S / 53.7E (HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 997 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 40 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 050 SO: 190 NO: 070 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 550 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 23/11/2009 18 UTC: 08.9S/53.2E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H: 24/11/2009 06 UTC: 09.6S/52.7E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 24/11/2009 18 UTC: 10.1S/52.1E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 48H: 25/11/2009 06 UTC: 10.4S/51.2E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 60H: 25/11/2009 18 UTC: 10.8S/50.1E, VENT MAX=085KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 72H: 26/11/2009 06 UTC: 11.5S/49.5E, VENT MAX=090KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=3.0-, CI=3.0-. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES, LES DONNES DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES ET LES DONNEES SATELLITES MONTRENT QUE LE SYSTEME S'EST INTENSIFIE SIGNIFICATIVEMENT END OF PART ONE ** WTIO22 FMEE 230631 *** OTHER INFORMATIONS: PRESSION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGH, AS ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSION REMAINS HIGH SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND HAS BEEN NAMED 'BONGANI' BY THE METEOROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICES OF MADAGASCAR.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 230631 *** END OF PART ONE= ** WTPN31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 006 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 8.4N 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 8.9N 146.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.6N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 10.6N 144.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 11.9N 143.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 14.5N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.4N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 17.9N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 147.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM STARTING TO DEVELOP A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WHILE A 230730Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT CONVECTIVE WRAPPING. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RADIAL OUTFLOW AS 26W HAS DEVELOPED AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. ACCORDINGLY THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, RECENT AGENCY FIXES AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD. TS 26W IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 120, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A RECURVATURE SCENARIO WHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS OFFER A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAT WILL STAY EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 230600 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0600 23 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST SLOWLY MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 240600 ONE ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST AT 250600 ONE ZERO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 260600 ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 231000 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009 800 PM CHST MON NOV 23 2009 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS INTENSIFIED TO A TROPICAL STORM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 26W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK 140 MILES NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT 140 MILES WEST OF ULUL 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL 210 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP 395 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN 650 MILES EAST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM 26W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 AM TUESDAY MORNING. $$ STANKO ** WTXS31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 8.5S 53.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 53.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 8.7S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.0S 52.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 9.3S 51.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 9.6S 50.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 10.1S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 10.9S 46.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 12.2S 43.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5S 53.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP TIGHTLY INTO AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 230133Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ILLUSTRATES THE CONVECTIVE BANDING WHILE A 230523Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 40-KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. TC 02S IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HAS RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF MULTIPLE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS. TC 02S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT STARTS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK SCENARIO AS THE ECMWF MODEL (AS OBTAINED FROM THEIR PUBLIC WEB PAGE) OFFERS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WHILE THE UKMO SOLUTION SUGGESTS A MORE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND SUBSEQUENT WESTWARD-MOVING TRACK. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE JTWC CONSENSUS, WHICH FAVORS THE SOUTHWESTWARD-TRACKING MODELS OF GFDN AND NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.// ** WTXS51 PGTW 230900 *** WARNING ATCP MIL 02S SIO 091123082614 2009112306 02S TWO 001 01 280 06 SATL 060 T000 085S 0536E 040 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD T012 087S 0528E 045 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD T024 090S 0521E 050 R034 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD T036 093S 0514E 055 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD T048 096S 0504E 060 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD T072 101S 0484E 065 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD T096 109S 0461E 055 T120 122S 0435E 045 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 8.5S 53.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 53.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 8.7S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.0S 52.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 9.3S 51.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 9.6S 50.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 10.1S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 10.9S 46.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 12.2S 43.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5S 53.4E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. // 0209112018 106S 614E 20 0209112100 105S 610E 20 0209112106 101S 601E 20 0209112112 99S 594E 20 0209112118 98S 586E 20 0209112200 97S 577E 25 0209112206 92S 564E 30 0209112212 87S 555E 30 0209112218 85S 547E 30 0209112300 86S 542E 30 0209112306 85S 536E 40 ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 230900UTC 08.4N 147.6E POOR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT GUST 045KT FORECAST 24HF 240900UTC 09.2N 145.4E 120NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT = ** WTPN21 PGTW 231000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220951ZNOV2009// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 9.5N 127.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 127.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 127.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST OF PALAU. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED FLARING OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 230912Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. HOWEVER, AN OLDER 221320Z ASCAT PASS SIGNALS THAT THE LLCC MAY HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED, THOUGH THE CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT SHOWS A VERY SYMMETRIC AREA. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM HAS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FORECASTED TO IMPROVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241000Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 231000 *** REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951Z NOV 09// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 231000)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 9.5N 127.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 127.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241000Z. // 9309112006 62N1292E 15 9309112012 63N1291E 15 9309112018 64N1290E 15 9309112100 66N1288E 20 9309112106 68N1286E 20 9309112112 70N1285E 20 9309112118 74N1287E 20 9309112200 78N1286E 20 9309112206 80N1282E 20 9309112212 82N1279E 20 9309112218 85N1277E 20 9309112300 90N1275E 20 9309112306 95N1274E 20 ** WTPN22 PGTW 231100 *** REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951Z NOV 09// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 231000)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 107.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241100Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 127.4E // 9609112106 32N1067E 15 9609112212 33N1069E 15 9609112218 34N1071E 15 9609112300 35N1073E 20 9609112306 37N1074E 20 ** WTPN22 PGTW 231100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951ZNOV2009// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231030Z INDICATES A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 107.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR A QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 230156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH CENTER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30-KNOT PERIPHERIAL WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST (ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. FINALLY, A 230931Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC, ILLUSTRATING THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241100Z. 4. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 231000) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 127.4E//