** WTNT80 EGRR 221800 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.11.2009 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221620 ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 221800UTC 07.4N 147.9E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT GUST 045KT FORECAST 24HF 231800UTC 08.9N 147.1E 120NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 222100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 7.5N 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 7.9N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 8.5N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.2N 145.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 10.1N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 12.4N 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 14.9N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 17.7N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 147.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED AND SUBSIDED, THE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 221539Z AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING A HOOK FEATURE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS MIGRATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS HAS REDUCED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ALLOWING TD 26W TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THIS MARGINAL GAIN WAS OFFSET BY THE REDUCED OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THE STEERING MECHANISM IS PROVIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS - LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW - WILL ENHANCE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PEAKING AS A STRONG TYPHOON BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 222122 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009 800 AM CHST MON NOV 23 2009 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W STILL NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF CHUUK... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES WEST OF CHUUK 95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT 55 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP 455 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 675 MILES EAST OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 7.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.8 DEGREES EAST...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ WILLIAMS/MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 RJTD 222100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 222100UTC 07.2N 147.6E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT GUST 045KT FORECAST 24HF 232100UTC 08.7N 146.4E 120NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT =