** WTNT80 EGRR 210600 ***

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.11.2009


 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP
 IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 210456


** WTPN21 PGTW 211100 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 5.8N 148.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210530Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 148.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N 146.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210851Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE BANDS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 202315Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS THE LLCC AS WELL AS A WESTERLY WIND BURST OF 20-KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS AN ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO HAVE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND CONSOLIDATE
UNDER MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED ABOUT 25 DEGREES NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCING THE SYSTEM'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT ORGANIZATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221100Z.//


** WTPN21 PGTW 211100 ***
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 5.8N 148.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211030Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 148.4E.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 221100Z.
//
9409112006  51N1496E  15
9409112012  52N1492E  15
9409112018  54N1489E  15
9409112100  56N1486E  20
9409112106  58N1484E  20