** WTIO30 FMEE 181224 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/18 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9S / 67.1E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.9S/71.1E FILLING UP. 24H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 30.4S/76.1E DISSIPATING. 36H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 33.8S/82.0E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 AND CI=2.0 THE STILL FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW SPEEDING UP TOWARDS THE SOUTHSOUTHEAST WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTION HAS NOT RESTARTED OVER THE CENTER SINCE MORE THAN 12 HOURS, CONSEQUENTLY SYSTEM IS NOW DOWNGRADED TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATUS WITH MAX WINDS OF 25 KT. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST: EX-ANJA SHOULD MERGE WITHIN THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE IS THAT THIS KIND OF TRACK OF ANJA (PARABOLIC TRACK AND CYCLOLYSIS WITHIN THE EXTRATROPICAL AREA) IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR A NOVEMBER TC IN THE SWIO ... LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. ** WTIO20 FMEE 150038 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 181224 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-ANJA) 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9S / 67.1E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. WINDS AT 25 KT NEAR THE CENTER REACHING LOCALLY 30 KT WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/19 AT 00 UTC: 26.9S / 71.1E, FILLING UP. 24H, VALID 2009/11/19 AT 12 UTC: 30.4S / 76.1E, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA CONTINU TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. ** WTIO30 FMEE 150038 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20092010 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0000 UTC : 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5. THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLAR INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEME IS NOW UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH TWO EFFICIENT UPPER LEVELS OUTFLOW EQUATOWARDS AND POLARWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AND SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NETX 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD, ITS STEERINF FLOW IS A MID LATITUDES RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH THAT WILL MOVE IN ITS EAST PROGRESSIVLY.=