** WTNT80 EGRR 180600 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.11.2009 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180434 ** WTIO21 FMEE 180622 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 18/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 017/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 18/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 4 (EX-ANJA) 999 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6S / 66.3E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A LOCALEMENT TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE ET S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST . FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 18/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 25.1S / 67.5E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. SE COMBLANT. A 24H POUR LE 19/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 29.0S / 71.7E, SE DISSIPANT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: ANJA S'EST AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT ET EST PREVU FUSIONNER AVEC LE FRONT FROID APPROCHANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36 HEURES.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 180622 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 017/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA) 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6S / 66.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 18 UTC: 25.1S / 67.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP. 24H, VALID 2009/11/19 AT 06 UTC: 29.0S / 71.7E, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA HAS WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 180622 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 017/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA) 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6S / 66.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 18 UTC: 25.1S / 67.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP. 24H, VALID 2009/11/19 AT 06 UTC: 29.0S / 71.7E, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA HAS WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 180620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI: 18-11-2009 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH WEST ARABIAN SEA,SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES ALONG LATITUDE 15 DEG N OVER INDIAN REGION(.) -----= ** WTIO20 FMEE 180622 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 017/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA) 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6S / 66.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 18 UTC: 25.1S / 67.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP. 24H, VALID 2009/11/19 AT 06 UTC: 29.0S / 71.7E, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA HAS WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 180622 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 18/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 017/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 18/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 4 (EX-ANJA) 999 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6S / 66.3E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A LOCALEMENT TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE ET S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST . FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 18/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 25.1S / 67.5E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. SE COMBLANT. A 24H POUR LE 19/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 29.0S / 71.7E, SE DISSIPANT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: ANJA S'EST AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT ET EST PREVU FUSIONNER AVEC LE FRONT FROID APPROCHANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36 HEURES.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 180634 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/4/20092010 1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 4 (EX-ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6S / 66.3E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES TROIS EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 999 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 30 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : NEANT 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 070 SO: NO: 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: FAIBLE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 18/11/2009 18 UTC: 25.1S/67.5E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. SE COMBLANT. 24H: 19/11/2009 06 UTC: 29.0S/71.7E SE DISSIPANT. 36H: 19/11/2009 18 UTC: 34.4S/78.1E DISSIPE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=2.0 ET CI=2.5 LES IMAGES VISIBLES DE CE DEBUT DE MATINEE ONT PERMIS DE RELOCALISER LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME PLUS A L'EST QUE PRECEDEMENT ESTIME. LE VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES APPARAIT MAINTENANT TOTALEMENT EXPOSE A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION RESIDUELLE. LES PREMIERS FIX DE CE MATIN SUGGERE QUE LE SYSTEME A SENSIBLEMENT RALENTI SA COURSE VERS LE SUD AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. LE QUICKSCAT DE 02:10Z SUGGERE QUE LES VENTS SE SONT BIEN AFFAIBLIS AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION DE PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME (GRAND FRAIS UNIQUEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST). C'EST SUR CETTE BASE QUE ANJA EST RETROGRADE AU STADE DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE. EX-ANJA CONFIRME SON EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ACCELER POUR FUSIONNER AVEC LE FRONT FROID SITUE DANS SON SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36 HEURES. IL EST A NOTER QUE LA TRAJECTOIRE D'ANJA (TRAJECTOIRE PARABOLIQUE ET CYCLOLYSE EN DOMAINE EXTRATROPICALE) EST UN FAIT TRES INHABITUEL POUR UN CYCLONE DE NOVEMBRE DANS LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN ...= ** WTIO30 FMEE 180634 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/18 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6S / 66.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 070 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 25.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 29.0S/71.7E DISSIPATING. 36H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 34.4S/78.1E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5 FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THIS MORNING HAS BEEN HELPFUL TO RELOCALISE THE CENTER MORE EASTWARDS THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW FULL EXPOSED WESTNORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. EARLY FIX SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER TH EPAST 6 HOURS. QUICKSCAT OF 02:10Z SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE STRONGLY WEAKEN WITHIN THE SMALL CIRCULATION (NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ONLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT). IT'S ON THIS BASIS THAT THE SYSTEM IS DOWGRADED TO THE SIMPLE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. EX-ANJA CONFIRMS ITS EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MID-LAT. IN FACT, IT SHOULD MERGE WITHIN THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AN INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE IS THAT THIS KIND OF TRACK OF ANJA (PARABOLIC TRACK AND CYCLOLYSIS WITHIN THE EXTRATROPICAL AREA) IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR A NOVEMBER TC IN THE SWIO ...= ** WTIO30 FMEE 180634 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/18 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6S / 66.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 070 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 25.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 29.0S/71.7E DISSIPATING. 36H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 34.4S/78.1E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5 FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THIS MORNING HAS BEEN HELPFUL TO RELOCALISE THE CENTER MORE EASTWARDS THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW FULL EXPOSED WESTNORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. EARLY FIX SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER TH EPAST 6 HOURS. QUICKSCAT OF 02:10Z SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE STRONGLY WEAKEN WITHIN THE SMALL CIRCULATION (NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ONLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 180634 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/4/20092010 1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 4 (EX-ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6S / 66.3E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES TROIS EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 999 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 30 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : NEANT 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 070 SO: NO: 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: FAIBLE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 18/11/2009 18 UTC: 25.1S/67.5E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. SE COMBLANT. 24H: 19/11/2009 06 UTC: 29.0S/71.7E SE DISSIPANT. 36H: 19/11/2009 18 UTC: 34.4S/78.1E DISSIPE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=2.0 ET CI=2.5 LES IMAGES VISIBLES DE CE DEBUT DE MATINEE ONT PERMIS DE RELOCALISER LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME PLUS A L'EST QUE PRECEDEMENT ESTIME. LE VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES APPARAIT MAINTENANT TOTALEMENT EXPOSE A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION RESIDUELLE. LES PREMIERS FIX DE CE MATIN SUGGERE QUE LE SYSTEME A SENSIBLEMENT RALENTI SA COURSE VERS LE SUD AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. LE QUICKSCAT DE 02:10Z SUGGERE QUE LES VENTS SE SONT BIEN AFFAIBLIS END OF PART ONE ** WTIO20 FMEE 150038 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150038 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20092010 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0000 UTC : 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5. THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLAR INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEME IS NOW UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH TWO EFFICIENT UPPER LEVELS OUTFLOW EQUATOWARDS AND POLARWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AND SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NETX 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD, ITS STEERINF FLOW IS A MID LATITUDES RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH THAT WILL MOVE IN ITS EAST PROGRESSIVLY.=