** WTIO20 FMEE 171215 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 965 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 00 UTC: 19.8S / 65.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 12 UTC: 22.6S / 66.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE WEST, IT IS TRACKING NOW SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD ACCERELATE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS BEYONG 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (MAINLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES) AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ANJA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDELY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 171215 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 19.8S/65.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.6S/66.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.7S/70.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 30.7S/75.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 34.4S/81.9E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ AND CI=4.5+. THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE WESTWARDS' (ACCORDING TO TRMM AND AQUA DATA 08H50Z AND 09H31Z). THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED DURING THE LAST HOURS, AS THE DEEP CONVECTION COLLAPSE DUE TO AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE AND MORE UNFAVORABLE : COOLER SST, AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BEYOND 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 171215 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 70 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 19.8S/65.4E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H: 18/11/2009 12 UTC: 22.6S/66.0E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 36H: 19/11/2009 00 UTC: 26.7S/70.3E, VENT MAX=035KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 19/11/2009 12 UTC: 30.7S/75.8E, VENT MAX=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 20/11/2009 00 UTC: 34.4S/81.9E SE DISSIPANT. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=3.5+ ET CI=4.5+. LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES A ETE RELOCALISE PLUS A L'OUEST, (D'APRES LES PASSES TRMM ET AQUA DE 08H50Z ET 09H31Z). L'OEIL A DISPARU DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, MARQUANT L'EFFONDREMENT DE LA CONVECTION PRES DU CENTRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLE: SST PLUS FROIDES, MISE EN PLACE D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST, A L'AVANT DU THALWEG. AU-DELA DE 12 HEURES, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU RECOURBER A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG, PUIS ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST. IL SUBIRA UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET S'AFFAIBLIRA RAPIDEMENT.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 171215 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 17/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 014/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 17/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 965 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD. OURAGAN 65/70 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 18/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 19.8S / 65.4E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 18/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 22.6S / 66.0E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE A ETE RELOCALISE PLUS A L'OUEST , IL SE DEPLACE MAINTENANT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST, ET DEVRAIT ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU SUD PUIS DU SUD-EST AU DELA DE 12 HEURES. LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE MAINTENANT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE (TEMPERATURES DE LA MER PLUS FRAICHES EN PARTICULIER) ET ENVIRONNEMENT D'ALTITUDE DEFAVORABLE. ANJA EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 171215 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 19.8S/65.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.6S/66.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.7S/70.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 30.7S/75.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 34.4S/81.9E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ AND CI=4.5+. THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE WESTWARDS' (ACCORDING TO TRMM AND AQUA DATA 08H50Z AND 09H31Z). THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED DURING THE LAST HOURS, AS THE DEEP CONVECTION COLLAPSE DUE TO AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE AND MORE UNFAVORABLE : COOLER SST, AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BEYOND 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 171215 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 965 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 00 UTC: 19.8S / 65.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 12 UTC: 22.6S / 66.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE WEST, IT IS TRACKING NOW SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD ACCERELATE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS BEYONG 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (MAINLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES) AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ANJA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDELY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 171215 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 19.8S/65.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.6S/66.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.7S/70.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 30.7S/75.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 34.4S/81.9E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ AND CI=4.5+. THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE WESTWARDS' (ACCORDING TO TRMM AND AQUA DATA 08H50Z AND 09H31Z). THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED DURING THE LAST HOURS, AS THE DEEP CONVECTION END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 171215 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 17/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 014/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 17/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 965 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD. OURAGAN 65/70 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 18/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 19.8S / 65.4E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 18/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 22.6S / 66.0E, VENT MAX = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 171215 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 70 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 19.8S/65.4E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H: 18/11/2009 12 UTC: 22.6S/66.0E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 36H: 19/11/2009 00 UTC: 26.7S/70.3E, VENT MAX=035KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 19/11/2009 12 UTC: 30.7S/75.8E, VENT MAX=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 20/11/2009 00 UTC: 34.4S/81.9E SE DISSIPANT. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=3.5+ ET CI=4.5+. LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES A ETE RELOCALISE PLUS A L'OUEST, (D'APRES LES PASSES TRMM ET AQUA DE 08H50Z ET 09H31Z). L'OEIL A DISPARU DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, MARQUANT L'EFFONDREMENT END OF PART ONE ** WTIO20 FMEE 171215 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 965 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 00 UTC: 19.8S / 65.4E, MAX WIND = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO30 FMEE 171215 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 19.8S/65.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.6S/66.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.7S/70.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 30.7S/75.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 34.4S/81.9E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ AND CI=4.5+. THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE WESTWARDS' (ACCORDING TO TRMM AND AQUA DATA 08H50Z AND 09H31Z). THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED DURING THE LAST HOURS, AS THE DEEP CONVECTION COLLAPSE DUE TO AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE AND MORE UNFAVORABLE : COOLER SST, AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BEYOND 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 171215 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2S / 66.2E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 70 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 19.8S/65.4E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H: 18/11/2009 12 UTC: 22.6S/66.0E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 36H: 19/11/2009 00 UTC: 26.7S/70.3E, VENT MAX=035KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 19/11/2009 12 UTC: 30.7S/75.8E, VENT MAX=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 20/11/2009 00 UTC: 34.4S/81.9E SE DISSIPANT. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=3.5+ ET CI=4.5+. LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES A ETE RELOCALISE PLUS A L'OUEST, (D'APRES LES PASSES TRMM ET AQUA DE 08H50Z ET 09H31Z). L'OEIL A DISPARU DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, MARQUANT L'EFFONDREMENT DE LA CONVECTION PRES DU CENTRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLE: SST PLUS FROIDES, MISE EN PLACE D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST, A L'AVANT DU THALWEG. AU-DELA DE 12 HEURES, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU RECOURBER A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG, PUIS ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST. IL SUBIRA UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET S'AFFAIBLIRA RAPIDEMENT.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 171500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 66.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 66.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.0S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 24.5S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 28.5S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 66.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC ANJA HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND LOST ITS PINHOLE EYE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED AND THE 170931Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MAY BE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE IN CONCERT WITH POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (65-90 KNOTS) AND FMEE (55-77 KNOTS). TC 01S IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, TC ANJA WILL ENCOUNTER MORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FINALLY, AS BUOYS IN THE AREA ARE REPORTING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF APPROXIMATELY 26.0C, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TRACK OVER MORE UNFAVORABLE WATERS. BY TAU 24, TC 01S WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AND IT WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INTO A WEAK BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 36. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.// ** WTXS51 PGTW 171500 *** WARNING ATCP MIL 01S SIO 091117142928 2009111712 01S ANJA 008 01 205 11 SATL 060 T000 183S 0665E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD T012 210S 0666E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD T024 245S 0685E 040 R034 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD T036 285S 0723E 030 AMP 024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 036HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 008 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 66.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 66.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.0S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 24.5S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 28.5S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 66.5E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z. // 0109111318 114S 715E 30 0109111400 120S 712E 30 0109111406 126S 710E 40 0109111412 127S 709E 45 0109111418 128S 707E 55 0109111418 128S 707E 55 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111512 132S 699E 105 0109111512 132S 699E 105 0109111512 132S 699E 105 0109111518 132S 695E 105 0109111518 132S 695E 105 0109111518 132S 695E 105 0109111600 135S 692E 105 0109111600 135S 692E 105 0109111600 135S 692E 105 0109111606 140S 689E 105 0109111606 140S 689E 105 0109111606 140S 689E 105 0109111612 147S 683E 105 0109111612 147S 683E 105 0109111612 147S 683E 105 0109111618 155S 679E 105 0109111618 155S 679E 105 0109111618 155S 679E 105 0109111700 165S 674E 105 0109111700 165S 674E 105 0109111700 165S 674E 105 0109111706 173S 670E 90 0109111706 173S 670E 90 0109111706 173S 670E 90 0109111712 183S 665E 75 0109111712 183S 665E 75 0109111712 183S 665E 75