** WTNT80 EGRR 170600 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.11.2009 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170428 ** WTIO20 FMEE 170613 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA POSITION: 17.3S / 67.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 18 UTC: 19.1S / 66.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 06 UTC: 21.6S / 66.3E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NOW SOUTHWARDS AND SHOULD ACCERELATE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE ENTER WITHIN A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (MAINLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES) AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ANJA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDELY BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 170613 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 0600 UTC : 17.3S / 67.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 21.6S/66.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 24.6S/68.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 28.3S/73.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 31.3S/78.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/11/20 06 UTC: 34.4S/84.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=5.0. DESPITE A TEMPORALY INCREASE OF DT DURING THE NIGHT, LAST SATELITE IMAGERY SHOWS INDICATION OF WEAKENING, LESS SYMETRIE OF DEEP CONVECTION, SURROUNDING RING TEMPERATURE BECOMING WARMLER. AS ANJA TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL INFL OW WEAKENS. BEYOND 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 170613 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 17/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 013/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 17/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA POSITION: 17.3S / 67.0E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD. OURAGAN 65/80 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 19.1S / 66.4E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 18/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 21.6S / 66.3E, VENT MAX = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE SE DEPLACE MAINTENANT VERS LE SUD, ET DEVRAIT ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU SUD PUIS DU SUD-EST. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE L'AMENE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE (TEMPERATURES DE LA MER PLUS FRAICHES EN PARTICULIER) ET ENVIRONNEMENT D'ALTITUDE DEFAVORABLE. ANJA VA S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT AU-DELA DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 170613 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 0600 UTC : 17.3S / 67.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 21.6S/66.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 24.6S/68.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 28.3S/73.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 31.3S/78.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/11/20 06 UTC: 34.4S/84.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=5.0. DESPITE A TEMPORALY INCREASE OF DT DURING THE NIGHT, LAST SATELITE IMAGERY SHOWS INDICATION OF WEAKENING, LESS SYMETRIE OF DEEP CONVECTION, SURROUNDING RING TEMPERATURE BECOMING WARMLER. AS ANJA TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL INFL OW WEAKENS. BEYOND 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 170613 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/11/2009 : 17.3S / 67.0E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 80 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.4E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 18/11/2009 06 UTC: 21.6S/66.3E, VENT MAX=055KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 18/11/2009 18 UTC: 24.6S/68.0E, VENT MAX=045KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 48H: 19/11/2009 06 UTC: 28.3S/73.2E, VENT MAX=035KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 19/11/2009 18 UTC: 31.3S/78.7E, VENT MAX=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 20/11/2009 06 UTC: 34.4S/84.4E, VENT MAX=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=4.5+ ET CI=5.0. MALGRE UN REGAIN TEMPORAIRE D'INTENSITE DURANT LA NUIT DERNIERE, LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE MONTRENT LES PREMIERS SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT , CONVECTION PROFONDE MOINS SYMETRIQUE, RECHAUFFEMENT DE L'ANNEAU ENVIRONNANT. SA TRAJECTOIRE EST MAINTENANT SUD, LE LONG DE LA BORDURE OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME AMENE A ANJA VERS UN ENVIRONNEMENT BIEN MOINS FAVORABLE. EN EFFET, MALGRE UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE QUI SE MAINTIENT TEMPORAIREMENT, LE POTENTIEL OCEA NIQUE AU DELA DE 16S DEVIENT BAS, ET L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES COTE POLAIRE S'AFFAIBLIT. AU-DELA DE 12 HEURES, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU RECOURBER A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG, PUIS ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST. IL SUBIRA UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET S'AFFAIBLIRA RAPIDEMENT.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 170613 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA POSITION: 17.3S / 67.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 18 UTC: 19.1S / 66.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 06 UTC: 21.6S / 66.3E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NOW SOUTHWARDS AND SHOULD ACCERELATE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE ENTER WITHIN A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (MAINLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES) AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ANJA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDELY BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 170613 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA POSITION: 17.3S / 67.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 18 UTC: 19.1S / 66.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 06 UTC: 21.6S / 66.3E, MAX WIND = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO30 FMEE 170613 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 0600 UTC : 17.3S / 67.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 21.6S/66.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 24.6S/68.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 28.3S/73.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 31.3S/78.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/11/20 06 UTC: 34.4S/84.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=5.0. DESPITE A TEMPORALY INCREASE OF DT DURING THE NIGHT, LAST SATELITE IMAGERY SHOWS INDICATION OF WEAKENING, LESS SYMETRIE OF DEEP END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 170613 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 17/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 013/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 17/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA POSITION: 17.3S / 67.0E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD. OURAGAN 65/80 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 19.1S / 66.4E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 18/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 21.6S / 66.3E, VENT MAX = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 170613 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/11/2009 : 17.3S / 67.0E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 80 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.4E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 18/11/2009 06 UTC: 21.6S/66.3E, VENT MAX=055KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 18/11/2009 18 UTC: 24.6S/68.0E, VENT MAX=045KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 48H: 19/11/2009 06 UTC: 28.3S/73.2E, VENT MAX=035KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 19/11/2009 18 UTC: 31.3S/78.7E, VENT MAX=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 20/11/2009 06 UTC: 34.4S/84.4E, VENT MAX=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=4.5+ ET CI=5.0. MALGRE UN REGAIN TEMPORAIRE D'INTENSITE DURANT LA NUIT DERNIERE, LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE MONTRENT LES PREMIERS SIGNES END OF PART ONE ** WTIN20 DEMS 170700 *** DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI: 17-11-2009 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) NO CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES ALONG LATITUDE 150N OVER INDIAN REGION. THE INTERNET NOW HAS A PERSONALITY. YOURS! SEE YOUR YAHOO! HOMEPAGE. HTTP://IN.YAHOO.COM/= ** WTIN20 DEMS 170700 *** DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI: 17-11-2009 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) NO CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES ALONG LATITUDE 150N OVER INDIAN REGION. THE INTERNET NOW HAS A PERSONALITY. YOURS? SEE YOUR YAHOO? HOMEPAGE. HTTP://IN.YAHOO.COM/= ** WTIN20 DEMS 170700 COR *** DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI: 17-11-2009 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) NO CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES ALONG LATITUDE 150N OVER INDIAN REGION.= ** WTSR20 WSSS 170600 *** NO STORM WARNING=