** WTSR20 WSSS 161800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 170030 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 16.4S / 67.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 00 UTC: 20.0S / 65.8E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE ENTER WITHIN A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (MAINLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES) AND THEN WEAKEN.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 170030 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 17/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 012/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 17/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 16.4S / 67.3E (SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.2E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 18/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 20.0S / 65.8E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, ET DEVRAIT ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD AU-DELA DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE L'AMENE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE (TEMPERATURES DE LA MER PLUS FRAICHES EN PARTICULIER) ET ANJA VA S'AFFAIBLIR.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 170030 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 16.4S / 67.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 00 UTC: 20.0S / 65.8E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE ENTER WITHIN A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (MAINLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES) AND THEN WEAKEN.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 170030 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 16.4S / 67.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 00 UTC: 20.0S / 65.8E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE ENTER WITHIN A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (MAINLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES) AND THEN WEAKEN.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 170030 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 16.4S / 67.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/18 AT 00 UTC: 20.0S / 65.8E, MAX WIND = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 170030 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 17/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 012/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 17/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 16.4S / 67.3E (SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.2E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 18/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 20.0S / 65.8E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, ET DEVRAIT ADOPTER UNE END OF PART ONE ** WTIO30 FMEE 170034 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 0000 UTC : 16.4S / 67.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 20.0S/65.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 23.1S/67.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.5S/71.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 29.5S/76.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 32.3S/81.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.5-. DESPITE A LESS WELL DEFINED AND LESS WARM EYE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE SURROUNDING RING TEMPERATURE HAS BECOME COOLER AND DT HAS THEN INCREASED . AS ANJA TRACKS SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN HE AT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IS DIFFERENT RELATED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE IN THE MIDLATITUDES.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 170034 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/11/2009 : 16.4S / 67.3E (SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 85 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.2E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 20.0S/65.8E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 18/11/2009 12 UTC: 23.1S/67.0E, VENT MAX=035KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 48H: 19/11/2009 00 UTC: 26.5S/71.2E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 60H: 19/11/2009 12 UTC: 29.5S/76.0E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 20/11/2009 00 UTC: 32.3S/81.0E, VENT MAX=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=5.0 ET CI=5.5- MALGRE UN OEIL MOINS BIEN DEFINI ET MOINS CHAUD SUR LES 12 DERNIERS HEURES, LA TEMPERATURE DE L'ANNEAU ENVIRONNANTE S'EST REFROIDIE SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES HEURES, ET L'ASPECT DU SYSTEME S'EST LEGEREMENT AMELIORE . SA TRAJECTOIRE SUD-SUD-OUEST, PUIS SUD, LE LONG DE LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME AMENE A ANJA VERS UN ENVIRONNEMENT BIEN MOINS FAVORABLE DANS LES PROCHAINES 12 HEURES. EN EFFET, MALGRE UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE QUI SE MAINTIENT, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU DELA DE 16S DEVIENT BAS, ET L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES COTE POLAIRE S'AFFAIBLIT. AU-DELA DE 24 HEURES, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU RECOURBER A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG, PUIS ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST. IL SUBIRA UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET S'AFFAIBLIRA RAPIDEMENT. LES MODELES SONT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR LE SCENARIO DU RECOURBEMENT, MAIS DIFFERENT QUANT A LA VITESSE D'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 170034 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 0000 UTC : 16.4S / 67.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 20.0S/65.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 23.1S/67.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.5S/71.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 29.5S/76.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 32.3S/81.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.5-. DESPITE A LESS WELL DEFINED AND LESS WARM EYE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE SURROUNDING RING TEMPERATURE HAS BECOME COOLER AND DT HAS THEN INCREASED . AS ANJA TRACKS SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN HE AT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IS DIFFERENT RELATED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE IN THE MIDLATITUDES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 170034 RRB *** DESPITE A LESS WELL DEFINED AND LESS WARM EYE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE SURROUNDING RING TEMPERATURE HAS BECOME COOLER AND DT HAS THEN INCREASED . AS ANJA TRACKS SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN HE AT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IS DIFFERENT RELATED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE IN THE MIDLATITUDES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 170034 RRA *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 0000 UTC : 16.4S / 67.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 20.0S/65.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 23.1S/67.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.5S/71.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 29.5S/76.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 32.3S/81.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.5-. ** WTIO30 FMEE 170034 RRB *** DESPITE A LESS WELL DEFINED AND LESS WARM EYE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE SURROUNDING RING TEMPERATURE HAS BECOME COOLER AND DT HAS THEN INCREASED . AS ANJA TRACKS SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN HE AT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IS DIFFERENT RELATED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE IN THE MIDLATITUDES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 170034 RRA *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 0000 UTC : 16.4S / 67.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 20.0S/65.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 23.1S/67.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.5S/71.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 29.5S/76.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 32.3S/81.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.5-. ** WTIO30 FMEE 170034 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/17 AT 0000 UTC : 16.4S / 67.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 20.0S/65.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 23.1S/67.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 26.5S/71.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 29.5S/76.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/11/20 00 UTC: 32.3S/81.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.5-. DESPITE A LESS WELL DEFINED AND LESS WARM EYE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE SURROUNDING RING TEMPERATURE HAS BECOME COOLER AND DT HAS THEN END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 170034 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/11/2009 : 16.4S / 67.3E (SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 85 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 18 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.2E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 20.0S/65.8E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 18/11/2009 12 UTC: 23.1S/67.0E, VENT MAX=035KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 48H: 19/11/2009 00 UTC: 26.5S/71.2E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 60H: 19/11/2009 12 UTC: 29.5S/76.0E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 20/11/2009 00 UTC: 32.3S/81.0E, VENT MAX=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=5.0 ET CI=5.5- MALGRE UN OEIL MOINS BIEN DEFINI ET MOINS CHAUD SUR LES 12 DERNIERS HEURES, LA TEMPERATURE DE L'ANNEAU ENVIRONNANTE S'EST REFROIDIE SUR END OF PART ONE ** WTXS31 PGTW 170300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 67.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 67.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.4S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.0S 66.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 24.2S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 26.4S 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 30.4S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 67.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TC 01S HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL (JUST OVER 60 NM IN DIAMETER) BUT COMPACT SYMMETRY WITH ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS EASY TO FIX WITH THE PRESENCE OF A PINHOLE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 FROM PGTW. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW OVERHEAD. TC ANJA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CRESTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK OVER COLDER WATER AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THIS TRANSITION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS STAGE, TC 01S WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS EXPOSED TO THE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE CYCLONE'S TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA TROPICAL (ET) SYSTEM WITH FULL ET STATUS BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF GFS THAT IS SIGNI- FICANTLY RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE FROM TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.// ** WTXS51 PGTW 170300 *** WARNING ATCP MIL 01S SIO 091117010011 2009111700 01S ANJA 007 01 215 11 SATL 060 T000 164S 0673E 115 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T012 184S 0664E 115 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T024 210S 0665E 105 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD T036 242S 0685E 090 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD T048 264S 0714E 065 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD T072 304S 0798E 045 AMP 048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 072HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 67.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 67.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.4S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.0S 66.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 24.2S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 26.4S 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 30.4S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 67.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TC 01S HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL (JUST OVER 60 NM IN DIAMETER) BUT COMPACT SYMMETRY WITH ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS EASY TO FIX WITH THE PRESENCE OF A PINHOLE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 FROM PGTW. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTRIPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW OVERHEAD. TC ANJA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK OVER COLDER WATER AS IT SHIFTS TO A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THIS TRANSITION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS STAGE, TC 01S WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS EXPOSED TO THE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE CYCLONE'S TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA TROPICAL (ET) SYSTEM WITH FULL ET STATUS BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF GFS THAT IS SIGNI- FICANTLY RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE FROM TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.// 0109111318 114S 715E 30 0109111400 120S 712E 30 0109111406 126S 710E 40 0109111412 127S 709E 45 0109111418 128S 707E 55 0109111418 128S 707E 55 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111512 132S 699E 105 0109111512 132S 699E 105 0109111512 132S 699E 105 0109111518 132S 695E 105 0109111518 132S 695E 105 0109111518 132S 695E 105 0109111600 135S 692E 105 0109111600 135S 692E 105 0109111600 135S 692E 105 0109111606 140S 689E 105 0109111606 140S 689E 105 0109111606 140S 689E 105 0109111612 147S 683E 105 0109111612 147S 683E 105 0109111612 147S 683E 105 0109111618 155S 679E 105 0109111618 155S 679E 105 0109111618 155S 679E 105 0109111700 164S 673E 115 0109111700 164S 673E 115 0109111700 164S 673E 115