** WTNT80 EGRR 161800 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.11.2009 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.9N 64.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.11.2009 27.9N 64.5W WEAK 00UTC 18.11.2009 28.6N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.11.2009 27.9N 66.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161629 ** WTIO20 FMEE 161825 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 15.5S / 67.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 06 UTC: 17.0S / 66.6E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 18 UTC: 19.1S / 66.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE ENTER WITHIN A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (MAINLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES) AND THEN KEEPS ON WEAKENING.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 161825 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 16/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 011/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 16/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 15.5S / 67.8E (QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 130 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST . OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 17.0S / 66.6E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 19.1S / 66.0E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: ANJA COMMENCE A MONTRER DES SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LE CYCLONE SE DEPLACE MAINTENANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST, ET DEVRAIT ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD AU-DELA DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE L'AMENE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE (TEMPERATURES DE LA MER PLUS FRAICHES EN PARTICULIER) ET ANJA VA CONTINUER A S'AFFAIBLIR.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 161825 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 15.5S / 67.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 06 UTC: 17.0S / 66.6E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 18 UTC: 19.1S / 66.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE ENTER WITHIN A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (MAINLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES) AND THEN KEEPS ON WEAKENING.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 161825 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 15.5S / 67.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 06 UTC: 17.0S / 66.6E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 18 UTC: 19.1S / 66.0E, MAX WIND = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 161825 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 16/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 011/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 16/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 15.5S / 67.8E (QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 130 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST . OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 17.0S / 66.6E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 19.1S / 66.0E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: END OF PART ONE ** WTIO30 FMEE 161847 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 1800 UTC : 15.5S / 67.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 17.0S/66.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 21.3S/66.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 24.2S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 26.9S/72.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 29.4S/76.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5- ANJA SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING; METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED EYE WHICH IS COOLING. AS ANJA SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN H EAT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IS DIFFERENT RELATED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE IN THE MIDLATITUDES.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 161847 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/11/2009 : 15.5S / 67.8E (QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 85 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 17/11/2009 06 UTC: 17.0S/66.6E, VENT MAX=065KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.0E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 18/11/2009 06 UTC: 21.3S/66.6E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 48H: 18/11/2009 18 UTC: 24.2S/68.9E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 60H: 19/11/2009 06 UTC: 26.9S/72.2E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 72H: 19/11/2009 18 UTC: 29.4S/76.2E, VENT MAX=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=4.5+ ET CI=5.5- ANJA MONTRE DES SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ; LES IMAGES METEOSAT7 EN INFRAROUGE RENFORCE REVELENT UN OEIL DECHIQUETE QUI SE REFROIDIT. SA TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST, PUIS SUD, LE LONG DE LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME AMENE A ANJA VERS UN ENVIRONNEMENT BIEN MOINS FAVORABLE DANS LES PROCHAINES 12 HEURES. EN EFFET, MALGRE UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE QUI SE MAINTIENT, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU DELA DE 16S DEVIENT BAS, ET L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES COTE POLAIRE S'AFFAIBLIT. AU-DELA DE 24 HEURES, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU RECOURBER A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG, PUIS ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST. IL SUBIRA UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET S'AFFAIBLIRA RAPIDEMENT. LES MODELES SONT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR LE SCENARIO DU RECOURBEMENT, MAIS DIFFERENT QUANT A LA VITESSE D'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 161847 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 1800 UTC : 15.5S / 67.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 17.0S/66.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 21.3S/66.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 24.2S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 26.9S/72.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 29.4S/76.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5- ANJA SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING; METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED EYE WHICH IS COOLING. AS ANJA SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN H EAT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IS DIFFERENT RELATED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE IN THE MIDLATITUDES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 161847 RRB *** ANJA SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING. METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED EYE WHICH IS COOLING. AS ANJA SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN H EAT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IS DIFFERENT RELATED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE IN THE MIDLATITUDES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 161847 RRA *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 1800 UTC : 15.5S / 67.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 17.0S/66.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 21.3S/66.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 24.2S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 26.9S/72.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 29.4S/76.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5- ** WTIO30 FMEE 161847 RRB *** ANJA SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING. METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED EYE WHICH IS COOLING. AS ANJA SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, IT SHOULD ENTER A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WHICH MAINTAINS, THE OCEAN H EAT CONTENT BECOMES LOWER BEYOND 16S AND THE POLEWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IS DIFFERENT RELATED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE IN THE MIDLATITUDES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 161847 RRA *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 1800 UTC : 15.5S / 67.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 17.0S/66.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 21.3S/66.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 24.2S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 26.9S/72.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 29.4S/76.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5- ** WTIO30 FMEE 161847 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 1800 UTC : 15.5S / 67.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 17.0S/66.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 21.3S/66.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 24.2S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 26.9S/72.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 29.4S/76.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5- ANJA SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING? METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED EYE WHICH IS COOLING. END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 161847 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/11/2009 : 15.5S / 67.8E (QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 85 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 17/11/2009 06 UTC: 17.0S/66.6E, VENT MAX=065KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 19.1S/66.0E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 18/11/2009 06 UTC: 21.3S/66.6E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 48H: 18/11/2009 18 UTC: 24.2S/68.9E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 60H: 19/11/2009 06 UTC: 26.9S/72.2E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 72H: 19/11/2009 18 UTC: 29.4S/76.2E, VENT MAX=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=4.5+ ET CI=5.5- ANJA MONTRE DES SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ? LES IMAGES METEOSAT7 EN INFRAROUGE RENFORCE REVELENT UN OEIL DECHIQUETE QUI SE REFROIDIT. END OF PART ONE