** WTSR20 WSSS 160600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 161221 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 68.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 00 UTC: 16.2S / 67.5E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.3E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD. ON THIS FORECASTED TRACK , SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT SHOULD WEAKEN MORE CLEARLY ON AND AFTER TOMORROW EVENING DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 161221 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 16/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 010/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 16/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7S / 68.3E (QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 130 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST . OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 16.2S / 67.5E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.3E, VENT MAX = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: ANJA A PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE. LE CYCLONE SE DEPLACE MAINTENANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, IL DEVRAIT COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAICHES. IL POURRAIT ENSUITE S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR EN RAISON DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADANT.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 161221 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 68.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 00 UTC: 16.2S / 67.5E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.3E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD. ON THIS FORECASTED TRACK , SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT SHOULD WEAKEN MORE CLEARLY ON AND AFTER TOMORROW EVENING DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 161222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 68.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 16.2S/67.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 19.7S/66.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.3S/66.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 24.9S/69.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 26.6S/72.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.5- ANJA HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY. METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A COOLING ANJA'S EYE SHOWIN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVOURABLE ON AND AFTER THE END OF NEXT NIGHT AND ANJA SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD BE PRONOUNCED TOMORROW LINKED TO A BUILDING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN RECURVING SOUTHWARDS BEFORE EVACUATING IN THE MID LATITUDES AT MEDIUM RANGE. RMW HAS BEEN CALIBRATED THANKS TO MICROWAVE AQUA AT 0850Z AND WINDS EXTENTION THANKS TO 0429Z ASCAT SWATH.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 161222 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7S / 68.3E (QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 85 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 17/11/2009 00 UTC: 16.2S/67.5E, VENT MAX=065KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.3E, VENT MAX=055KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 19.7S/66.1E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 48H: 18/11/2009 12 UTC: 22.3S/66.9E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 60H: 19/11/2009 00 UTC: 24.9S/69.8E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 72H: 19/11/2009 12 UTC: 26.6S/72.7E, VENT MAX=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=5.0 ET CI=5.5- ANJA A PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE. LES IMAGES METEOSAT7 EN INFRAROUGE RENFORCE REVELENT UN OEIL D'ANJA SE REFROIDISSANT ET MONTRANT UN DEBUT D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SUR TEMPERATURES DES EAUX DE SURFACE OCEANIQUES DE MOINS EN MOINS FAVORABLES. L'ENVIRONNEMENT ENREGETIQUE DEVIENDRA DEFAVORABLE EN FIN DE NUIT ET EN RAISON DE SA PETITE TAILLE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR BRUTALEMENT. L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD DEMAIN DANS LA JOURNEE DEVRAIT ACCENTUER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS RECOURBER VERS LE SUD AVANT D'ETRE REPRIS DANS UN TALWEG DE MOYENNES LATITUDES EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. LE RAYON DES VENTS MAX A ETE CALIBRE GRACE A L'IMAGE AQUA DE 0850Z ET L'EXTENSION DES VENTS GRACE A LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0429Z.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 161222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 68.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 16.2S/67.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 19.7S/66.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.3S/66.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 24.9S/69.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 26.6S/72.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.5- ANJA HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY. METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A COOLING ANJA'S EYE SHOWIN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVOURABLE ON AND AFTER THE END OF NEXT NIGHT AND ANJA SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD BE PRONOUNCED TOMORROW LINKED TO A BUILDING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN RECURVING SOUTHWARDS BEFORE EVACUATING IN THE MID LATITUDES AT MEDIUM RANGE. RMW HAS BEEN CALIBRATED THANKS TO MICROWAVE AQUA AT 0850Z AND WINDS EXTENTION THANKS TO 0429Z ASCAT SWATH.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 161221 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 68.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 00 UTC: 16.2S / 67.5E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.3E, MAX WIND = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 161221 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 16/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 010/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 16/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7S / 68.3E (QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 130 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST . OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 16.2S / 67.5E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 17.9S / 66.3E, VENT MAX = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO30 FMEE 161222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 68.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 16.2S/67.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 19.7S/66.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.3S/66.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/19 00 UTC: 24.9S/69.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 12 UTC: 26.6S/72.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.5- ANJA HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY. METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A COOLING ANJA'S EYE END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 161222 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7S / 68.3E (QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 85 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 17/11/2009 00 UTC: 16.2S/67.5E, VENT MAX=065KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 17.9S/66.3E, VENT MAX=055KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 19.7S/66.1E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 48H: 18/11/2009 12 UTC: 22.3S/66.9E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 60H: 19/11/2009 00 UTC: 24.9S/69.8E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 72H: 19/11/2009 12 UTC: 26.6S/72.7E, VENT MAX=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=5.0 ET CI=5.5- ANJA A PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE. LES IMAGES METEOSAT7 EN INFRAROUGE RENFORCE REVELENT UN OEIL D'ANJA END OF PART ONE ** WTIN20 DEMS 160700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ================ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 16-11-2009 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS ,NOW LIES OVER SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA, SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA.(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES ALONG LATITUDE 14 DEG N OVER INDIAN REGION = ** WTXS31 PGTW 161500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 68.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 68.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.3S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.3S 66.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.7S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 23.2S 68.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 28.1S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 32.4S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 68.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160849Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT A VERY SMALL, AXISYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 15-NM EYE AND UNIFORM RING OF SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION I.E., AN ANNULAR SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE OUTER BANDING WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT 102 KNOTS DESPITE SLIGHT COOLING OF THE EYE TEMPERATURE WITH AUTOMATED DVORAKS AT 105 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT ACCELERATION BASED ON THE EYE FIXES. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE, DEEP TROUGH AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT DOES REFLECT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 48. THIS FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AT TAU 72/96 DUE TO EXCESSIVE TRACK SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH WBAR, GFDN AND NOGAPS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS DUE TO IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND, IN GENERAL, IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO ITS ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SST, LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.// ** WTXS51 PGTW 161500 *** WARNING ATCP MIL 01S SIO 091116134301 2009111612 01S ANJA 006 01 220 09 SATL 025 T000 147S 0683E 105 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD T012 163S 0671E 115 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD T024 183S 0663E 105 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD T036 207S 0666E 090 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD T048 232S 0682E 065 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD T072 281S 0738E 045 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD T096 324S 0805E 035 AMP 072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 096HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 68.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 68.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.3S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.3S 66.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.7S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 23.2S 68.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 28.1S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 32.4S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 68.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160849Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT A VERY SMALL, AXISYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 15-NM EYE AND UNIFORM RING OF SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION I.E., AN ANNULAR SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE OUTER BANDING WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT 102 KNOTS DESPITE SLIGHT COOLING OF THE EYE TEMPERATURE WITH AUTOMATED DVORAKS AT 105 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT ACCELERATION BASED ON THE EYE FIXES. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE, DEEP TROUGH AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT DOES REFLECT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 48. THIS FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AT TAU 72/96 DUE TO EXCESSIVE TRACK SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH WBAR, GFDN AND NOGAPS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS DUE TO IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND, IN GENERAL, IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO ITS ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SST, LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.// 0109111318 114S 715E 30 0109111400 120S 712E 30 0109111406 126S 710E 40 0109111412 127S 709E 45 0109111418 128S 707E 55 0109111418 128S 707E 55 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111512 132S 699E 105 0109111512 132S 699E 105 0109111512 132S 699E 105 0109111518 132S 695E 105 0109111518 132S 695E 105 0109111518 132S 695E 105 0109111600 135S 692E 105 0109111600 135S 692E 105 0109111600 135S 692E 105 0109111606 140S 689E 105 0109111606 140S 689E 105 0109111606 140S 689E 105 0109111612 147S 683E 105 0109111612 147S 683E 105 0109111612 147S 683E 105