** WTNT80 EGRR 160600 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.11.2009 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160447 ** WTIO20 FMEE 160615 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 68.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 18 UTC: 14.9S / 67.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 06 UTC: 16.3S / 66.7E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. ITS INTENSITY IS STATIONARY DURING LAST NIGHT. ANJA BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND ON THIS FORECASTED TRACK , SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKENED PROGRESSIVELY ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IT SHOULD WEAKENED MORE CLEARLY ON AND AFTER 36H DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 160615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 16/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 009/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 16/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1S / 68.9E (QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST . OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQUE 100 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQUE 140 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 14.9S / 67.8E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 17/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 16.3S / 66.7E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: ANJA RESTE UN PETIT SYSTEME ET SON INTENSITE S'EST MAINTENUE AU COURS DE LA NUIT. LE CYCLONE A AMORCE SA DESCENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, IL DEVRAIT COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAICHES. IL POURRAIT ENSUITE S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR DE 36H EN RAISON DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADANT.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 160615 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 68.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 18 UTC: 14.9S / 67.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/17 AT 06 UTC: 16.3S / 66.7E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. ITS INTENSITY IS STATIONARY DURING LAST NIGHT. ANJA BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND ON THIS FORECASTED TRACK , SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKENED PROGRESSIVELY ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IT SHOULD WEAKENED MORE CLEARLY ON AND AFTER 36H DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 160615 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 68.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 18 UTC: 14.9S / 67.8E, MAX WIND = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 160615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 16/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 009/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 16/11/2009 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1S / 68.9E (QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST . OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQUE 100 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQUE 140 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 14.9S / 67.8E, VENT MAX = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO30 FMEE 160629 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 68.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/67.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 16.3S/66.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.7S/66.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 19.3S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 21.2S/66.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 23.1S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=5.5- ANJA REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM AND ITS INTENSITY IS STATIONARY DURING LAST NIGHT. ACCORDING TO THE LAST STALLITE IMAGERY, ANJA BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD . THE SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS AND POOR VERTICAL UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR AND A RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE POLEWARD. THE EFFICIENCY OF THE POLAR OUTFLOW IS WEAKENING DUE TO THE WESTERLY JET MOVING EASTWARD. THE STEERING FLOW IS THE MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH MOVES EASTWARD. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN RECURVING SOUTHWARDS BEFORE EVACUATING IN THE MID LATITUDES AT MEDIUM RANGE. ON THIS FORECASTED TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SST, SOUTH OF 16S. UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 36H.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 160629 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1S / 68.9E (QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 85 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 16/11/2009 18 UTC: 14.9S/67.8E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 17/11/2009 06 UTC: 16.3S/66.7E, VENT MAX=065KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 36H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 17.7S/66.2E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 48H: 18/11/2009 06 UTC: 19.3S/66.1E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 60H: 18/11/2009 18 UTC: 21.2S/66.9E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 72H: 19/11/2009 06 UTC: 23.1S/68.9E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T= CI=5.5- ANJA RESTE UN PETIT SYSTEME ET SON INTENSITE S'EST MAINTENUE AU COURS DE LA NUIT. D'APRES LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES, LE CYCLONE A AMORCE SA DESCENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST TOUJOURS DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE AVEC DE BONNES ALIMENTATIONS DE BASSES COUCHES, SURTOUT AU SUD COTE ALIZES, ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ET UNE ASSEZ BONNE DIVERGENCE DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE COTE POLAIRE. AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU JET D'OUEST, LE CANAL D'EVACUATION DU FLUX SORTANT D'ALTITUDE DEVIENT DE MOINS EN MOINS EFFICACE. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DU SYSTEME EST MAINTENANT LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN SON SUD QUI VA PROGRESSIVEMENT SE DECALER VERS L'EST LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS RECOURBER VERS LE SUD AVANT D'ETRE REPRIS DANS UN TALWEG DE MOYENNES LATITUDES EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DE CE SYSTEME DEVRAIENT SE MAINTENIR ENCORE 12 A 24 HEURES. AU-DELA, LE SYSTEME VA PENETRER SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AU SUD DE 16OS . LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT VA SE RENFORCER NETTEMENT A PARTIR DE 36 HEURES D'ECHEANCES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 160629 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 68.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/67.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 16.3S/66.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.7S/66.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 19.3S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 21.2S/66.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 23.1S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=5.5- ANJA REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM AND ITS INTENSITY IS STATIONARY DURING LAST NIGHT. ACCORDING TO THE LAST STALLITE IMAGERY, ANJA BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD . THE SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS AND POOR VERTICAL UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR AND A RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE POLEWARD. THE EFFICIENCY OF THE POLAR OUTFLOW IS WEAKENING DUE TO THE WESTERLY JET MOVING EASTWARD. THE STEERING FLOW IS THE MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH MOVES EASTWARD. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN RECURVING SOUTHWARDS BEFORE EVACUATING IN THE MID LATITUDES AT MEDIUM RANGE. ON THIS FORECASTED TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SST, SOUTH OF 16S. UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 36H.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 160629 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 68.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/67.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 16.3S/66.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.7S/66.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 19.3S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 21.2S/66.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 23.1S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=5.5- ANJA REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM AND ITS INTENSITY IS STATIONARY DURING LAST NIGHT. END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 160629 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1S / 68.9E (QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 85 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 16/11/2009 18 UTC: 14.9S/67.8E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 17/11/2009 06 UTC: 16.3S/66.7E, VENT MAX=065KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 36H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 17.7S/66.2E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 48H: 18/11/2009 06 UTC: 19.3S/66.1E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 60H: 18/11/2009 18 UTC: 21.2S/66.9E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 72H: 19/11/2009 06 UTC: 23.1S/68.9E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T= CI=5.5- ANJA RESTE UN PETIT SYSTEME ET SON INTENSITE S'EST MAINTENUE AU COURS DE LA NUIT. D'APRES LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES, LE CYCLONE A AMORCE END OF PART ONE ** WTIN20 DEMS 160700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ================================ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 16-11-2009 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS ,NOW LIES OVER SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA, SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA.(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES ALONG LATITUDE 14 DEG N OVER INDIAN REGION =