** WTNT80 EGRR 151800 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.11.2009 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION WITHIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151629 ** WTIO20 FMEE 151829 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA POSITION: 13.2S / 69.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 06 UTC: 13.4S / 68.5E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 18 UTC: 14.1S / 67.4E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA HAS WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND FINALLY SOUTHWARDS BEYOND.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 151829 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 007/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA POSITION: 13.2S / 69.5E (TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/80 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET JUSQU'A 140 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 13.4S / 68.5E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 14.1S / 67.4E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: ANJA S'EST LEGEREMENT AFFAIBLIT AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST POUR LES 12 PROCHAINES, PUIS VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD AU-DELA.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 151829 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA POSITION: 13.2S / 69.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 06 UTC: 13.4S / 68.5E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 18 UTC: 14.1S / 67.4E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA HAS WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND FINALLY SOUTHWARDS BEYOND.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 151829 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA POSITION: 13.2S / 69.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 06 UTC: 13.4S / 68.5E, MAX WIND = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 151829 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 007/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA POSITION: 13.2S / 69.5E (TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/80 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET JUSQU'A 140 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 13.4S / 68.5E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 14.1S / 67.4E, VENT MAX = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO30 FMEE 151843 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 1800 UTC : 13.2S / 69.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 450 SO: 150 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 13.4S/68.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.1S/67.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 15.3S/66.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 20.0S/65.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 22.6S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0, CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ANJA IS JUST UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THE UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR IS POOR, A GOOD OUTFLOW EXISTS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVELS INFLOWS ARE GOOD AND SHOULD REMAIN DURING 48 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN, THE WESTERLY JET MOVING EASTWARD. SO THE SYSTEM IS NO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN POOR DURING 36 TO 48 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, SLOWLY, DURING FEW HOURS, A,D THE, WITH THE MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-EAST, AND THEN IN ITS EAST, IT WILL ACCELERATE AND TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD. BEYOND 48 HOURS TAU, IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD WITHIN A MID-LATITUDES TALW EG. WITH ITS TRACK SOUTHWARD, BEYOND 48 HOURS TAU, ENERGETIC POTENTIAL WILL BECOME POOR, THE LOW LEVELS INFLOWS WILL BREAK, AND THE VERTICAL UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY JET ARRIVING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 151843 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 1800 UTC : 13.2S / 69.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 450 SO: 150 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 13.4S/68.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.1S/67.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 15.3S/66.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 20.0S/65.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 22.6S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0, CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ANJA IS JUST UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THE UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR IS POOR, A GOOD OUTFLOW EXISTS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVELS INFLOWS ARE GOOD AND SHOULD REMAIN DURING 48 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN, THE WESTERLY JET MOVING EASTWARD. SO THE SYSTEM IS NO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN POOR DURING 36 TO 48 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, SLOWLY, DURING FEW HOURS, A,D THE, WITH THE MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-EAST, AND THEN IN ITS EAST, IT WILL ACCELERATE AND TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD. BEYOND 48 HOURS TAU, IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD WITHIN A MID-LATITUDES TALW EG. WITH ITS TRACK SOUTHWARD, BEYOND 48 HOURS TAU, ENERGETIC POTENTIAL WILL BECOME POOR, THE LOW LEVELS INFLOWS WILL BREAK, AND THE VERTICAL UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY JET ARRIVING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 151843 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/11/2009 : 13.2S / 69.5E (TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 80 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 450 SO: 150 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 16/11/2009 06 UTC: 13.4S/68.5E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 16/11/2009 18 UTC: 14.1S/67.4E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 17/11/2009 06 UTC: 15.3S/66.3E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 48H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.4E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 60H: 18/11/2009 06 UTC: 20.0S/65.4E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 72H: 18/11/2009 18 UTC: 22.6S/66.8E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T= 5.0 , CI=5.5- LE SYSTEME S'EST LEGEREMENT AFFAIBLI AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. IL S'EST DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. ANJA EST BIEN SOUS LA DORSALE DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT EST FAIBLE, UN BON CANAL D'EVACUATION DU FLUX SORTANT D'ALTITUDE EST PRESENT AU SUD DU SYSTEME. IL EST BIEN ALIMENTE EN BASSES COUCHES, AUSSI BIEN COTE POLAIRE QUE COTE EQUATORIAL. CETTE BONNE ALIMENTATION DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR ENCORE 48 HEURES. EN ALTITUDE, AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, LE CANAL D'EVACUATION DU FLUX SORTANT D'ALTITUDE VA FAIBLIR AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU JET D'OUEST VERS L'EST DU BASSIN. LE SYSTEME CESSE DONC DE BENEFICIER DE CETTE CONDITION FAVORABLE, PAR CONTRE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT RESTE FAIBLE PENDANT ENCORE 3 6 A 48 HEURES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENCORE SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, PUIS, AVEC LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI VA SE PLACER A SON SUD-EST,PUIS A SON EST, IL VA ACCELERER ET ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD. AU-DELA DE 48 HEURES D'ECHEANCE, IL DEVRAIT C OMMENCER A RECOURBER VERS LE SUD-EST AU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE LATITUDES. AVEC CE DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, AU-DELA DE 48 HEURES D'ECHEANCE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT VA NETTEMENT SE DEGRADER : LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE TROP FAIBLE, LA RUPTURE DE L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES ET UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT AUGMENTANT AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN JET DE NORD-OUEST AU SUD DU SYSTEME.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 151843 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 1800 UTC : 13.2S / 69.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 450 SO: 150 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 13.4S/68.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.1S/67.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 15.3S/66.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 20.0S/65.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 22.6S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0, CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 151843 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/11/2009 : 13.2S / 69.5E (TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 80 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 450 SO: 150 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 16/11/2009 06 UTC: 13.4S/68.5E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 16/11/2009 18 UTC: 14.1S/67.4E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 36H: 17/11/2009 06 UTC: 15.3S/66.3E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 48H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.4E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 60H: 18/11/2009 06 UTC: 20.0S/65.4E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 72H: 18/11/2009 18 UTC: 22.6S/66.8E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T= 5.0 , CI=5.5- LE SYSTEME S'EST LEGEREMENT AFFAIBLI AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. IL S'EST DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. END OF PART ONE