** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 151327 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 13.3S / 70.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 68.5E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 12 UTC: 14.5S / 67.0E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND FINALLY SOUTHWARDS BEYOND.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 151327 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 006/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 13.3S / 70.0E (TREIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET JUSQU'A 140 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 13.6S / 68.5E, VENT MAX = 85 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 14.5S / 67.0E, VENT MAX = 85 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: ANJA POURSUIT SON INTENSIFICATION DANS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, PUIS RECOURBER VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD AU-DELA.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 151331 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 1200 UTC : 13.3S / 70.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/68.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.5S/67.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.8S/65.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.1S/64.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.9S/64.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.3S/65.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT: GOOD EQUATORWARD INFLOW, VERY GOOD POLEWARD INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. NO WINDSHAER AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND BENEFITS FROM AN EFFICIENT UPPER LEVELS POLEWARDS OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AND SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWARDS. THE STEERING FLOW IS INDEED A MID-LATITUDES RIDGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE GRADUALLY IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 151327 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 13.3S / 70.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 68.5E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 12 UTC: 14.5S / 67.0E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ANJA KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND FINALLY SOUTHWARDS BEYOND.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 151331 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/11/2009 : 13.3S / 70.0E (TREIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 85 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 45 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 16/11/2009 00 UTC: 13.6S/68.5E, VENT MAX=085KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 16/11/2009 12 UTC: 14.5S/67.0E, VENT MAX=085KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 36H: 17/11/2009 00 UTC: 15.8S/65.7E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 48H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 17.1S/64.7E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 60H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 18.9S/64.0E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 72H: 18/11/2009 12 UTC: 22.3S/65.6E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=5.5- LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SON INTENSIFICATION AU SEIN D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE : BONNE ALIMENTATION COTE EQUATORIAL, TRES BONNE ALIMENTATION COTE POLAIRE AVEC L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL POSITIONNE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. CISAILLEMENT NUL ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME SE SITUE SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE, ET BENEFICIE D'UN CANALD'EVACUATION EFFICACE, PRINCIPALEMENT COTE POLAIRE. CES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES SONT PREVUES PERDURER AU COURS DES 36 PROCHAINES HEURES. AU DELA DE L'ECHEANCE 36, LES FLUX DE MOUSSON ET L'ALIZE FAIBLISSENT. LES SST DEVIENNENT PLUS FRAICHES, LIMITANT ALORS L'INTENSIFICATION. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES PUIS BIFURQUER VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET LE SUD. SON FLUX DIRECTEUR EST EN EFFET UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD QUI VA SE DECALER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST DU SYSTEME.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 151331 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 1200 UTC : 13.3S / 70.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/68.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.5S/67.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.8S/65.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.1S/64.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.9S/64.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.3S/65.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT: GOOD EQUATORWARD INFLOW, VERY GOOD POLEWARD INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. NO WINDSHAER AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND BENEFITS FROM AN EFFICIENT UPPER LEVELS POLEWARDS OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AND SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWARDS. THE STEERING FLOW IS INDEED A MID-LATITUDES RIDGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE GRADUALLY IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 151327 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 13.3S / 70.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 68.5E, MAX WIND = END OF PART ONE ** WTIO30 FMEE 151331 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/4/20092010 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 1200 UTC : 13.3S / 70.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/68.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.5S/67.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.8S/65.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 17.1S/64.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.9S/64.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2009/11/18 12 UTC: 22.3S/65.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT: GOOD EQUATORWARD INFLOW, VERY GOOD POLEWARD INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 151331 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/4/20092010 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/11/2009 : 13.3S / 70.0E (TREIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 85 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 45 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 16/11/2009 00 UTC: 13.6S/68.5E, VENT MAX=085KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H: 16/11/2009 12 UTC: 14.5S/67.0E, VENT MAX=085KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 36H: 17/11/2009 00 UTC: 15.8S/65.7E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 48H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 17.1S/64.7E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 60H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 18.9S/64.0E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 72H: 18/11/2009 12 UTC: 22.3S/65.6E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=5.5- LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SON INTENSIFICATION AU SEIN D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE : BONNE ALIMENTATION COTE EQUATORIAL, TRES BONNE END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 151327 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 006/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 950 HPA POSITION: 13.3S / 70.0E (TREIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET JUSQU'A 140 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 13.6S / 68.5E, VENT MAX = 85 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 14.5S / 67.0E, VENT MAX = END OF PART ONE ** WTXS31 PGTW 151500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 69.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 69.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.0S 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.2S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.7S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.4S 65.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 22.0S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 25.1S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 28.2S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 69.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 01S HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A 25 NM ROUND EYE AND A 150 NM DIAMETER CORE OF INTENSE, DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED BY 50 KNOTS UNDER THESE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES WHICH RANGE FROM 90 (KNES) TO 102 KNOTS (PGTW, FMEE). TC 01S HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS STR IS SHIFTING FROM A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION TO A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH (NOW OVER MADAGASCAR). THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMWF, GFDN, NOGAPS, TC-LAPS, WBAR) SUPPORT A RE-CURVE SCENARIO WITH THE SYSTEM ACCELERATING AND UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS EARLY AS TAU 96. THE UKMO AND THE GFS ARE THE OUTLIERS AND ARE TRACKING TC 01S MORE WESTWARD TOWARD PORT LOUIS DESPITE INDICATING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AS THE RE-CURVE MODELS. IN FACT, THE GFS AND UKMO MODELS STEER THE SYSTEM PERPENDICULAR TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ARE THEREFORE CONSIDERED SUSPECT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SST, MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUICKLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.// ** WTXS51 PGTW 151500 *** WARNING ATCP MIL 01S SIO 091115131111 2009111512 01S ANJA 004 01 245 04 SATL 025 T000 133S 0699E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T012 140S 0689E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD T024 152S 0676E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD T036 167S 0664E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD T048 184S 0658E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T072 220S 0671E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD T096 251S 0704E 055 T120 282S 0761E 040 AMP 096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 69.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 69.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.0S 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.2S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.7S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.4S 65.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 22.0S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 25.1S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 28.2S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 69.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 01S HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A 25 NM ROUND EYE AND A 150 NM DIAMETER CORE OF INTENSE, DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED BY 50 KNOTS UNDER THESE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES WHICH RANGE FROM 90 (KNES) TO 102 KNOTS (PGTW, FMEE). TC 01S HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS STR IS SHIFTING FROM A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION TO A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH (NOW OVER MADAGASCAR). THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMWF, GFDN, NOGAPS, TC-LAPS, WBAR) SUPPORT A RE-CURVE SCENARIO WITH THE SYSTEM ACCELERATING AND UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS EARLY AS TAU 96. THE UKMO AND THE GFS ARE THE OUTLIERS AND ARE TRACKING TC 01S MORE WESTWARD TOWARD PORT LOUIS DESPITE INDICATING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AS THE RE-CURVE MODELS. IN FACT, THE GFS AND UKMO MODELS STEER THE SYSTEM PERPENDICULAR TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ARE THEREFORE CONSIDERED SUSPECT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SST, MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUICKLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.// 0109111318 114S 715E 30 0109111400 120S 712E 30 0109111406 126S 710E 40 0109111412 127S 709E 45 0109111418 128S 707E 55 0109111418 128S 707E 55 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111500 130S 705E 90 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111506 131S 703E 100 0109111512 133S 699E 105 0109111512 133S 699E 105 0109111512 133S 699E 105