** WTNT80 EGRR 150600 ***

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.11.2009


 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP
 IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 150437


** WTIN20 DEMS 150620 ***

             TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED:   15-11-2009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC  (.)

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
PERSISTS(.)

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF COMORIN AREA AND
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDMAN SEA.(.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES ALONG LATITUDE 13 DEG N OVER INDIAN
REGION .=


** WTIO20 FMEE 150637 ***
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY    15/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA
POSITION:           13.1S / 70.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST
) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING
UP TO
 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN
 QUADRANT..

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KTAND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM
RADIUS
 OF THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS
 OF THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS  WITHIN 60 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT,
AND
UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 18 UTC:
13.2S / 69.7E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 06 UTC:
13.6S / 68.4E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ANJA KEEPS ON QUICKLY INTENSIFYING WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT
24
HOURS,  THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND FINALLY SOUTHWARDS BEYOND.=


** WTIO30 FMEE 150637 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4  (ANJA)

2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0600 UTC :
13.1S / 70.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.0/5.0 /D  1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 220   SO: 250   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 18 UTC: 13.2S/69.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 13.6S/68.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.6S/67.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 15.9S/66.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 18.9S/65.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
REANALYSIS AT 00Z : T=4.0+.
ANJA IS A MIDGET WHICH REACTS QUICKLY TO THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
RESPECT.
DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, MSLP IS ESTIMATED HIGHER.

THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD
EQUATORWARD
INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLARWARD INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEME IS STILL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A MAIN
EFFICIENT
UPPER LEVELS  POLEWARDS OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN
THE
 NEXT 36 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN,
AND
 SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE
STEERING FLOW IS A MID-LATITUDES RIDGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.=


** WTIO31 FMEE 150637 ***


CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN           : 5/4/20092010
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4  (ANJA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/11/2009 :
13.1S / 70.4E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK            : 5.0/5.0 /D  1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE           : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN)       : 80 KT
 RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 45 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 220   SO: 250   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/11/2009 18 UTC: 13.2S/69.7E, VENT MAX=090KT, CYCL. TROP.
INTENSE.
24H: 16/11/2009 06 UTC: 13.6S/68.4E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
36H: 16/11/2009 18 UTC: 14.6S/67.0E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
48H: 17/11/2009 06 UTC: 15.9S/66.0E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP.
TROP..
60H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.3E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP.
TROP..
72H: 18/11/2009 06 UTC: 18.9S/65.3E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP.
MODEREE.

2.B COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+
SYSTEME REANALYSE A 00Z: T=4.0+.
ANJA EST UN PETIT SYSTEME QUI REPOND RAPIDEMENT AUX EXCELLENTES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, ET LES CONTRAINTES DE DVORAK SONT
DIFFICILES A RESPECTER.
EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, LA PRESSION MINIMALE EST
ESTIMEE PLUS ELEVEE.

LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE RAPIDEMENT, EN DEPLACEMENT
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT TRES FAVORABLES AVEC UNE
BONNE
ALIMENTATION COTE EQUATORIAL, TRES BONNE ALIMENTATION COTE POLAIRE
AVEC L
'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL QUI VIENT SE POSITIONNER AU SUD DU SYSTEME.
LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE MAINTENANT SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE, ET
BENEFICIE
D'UN CANAL EFFICACE D'EVACUATION PRINCIPALEMENT COTE POLAIRE.
CES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES SONT PREVUES PERDURER AU COURS DES 36
PROCHAINES HEURES.
AU DELA DE L'ECHEANCE 36, LES FLUX DE MOUSSON ET L'ALIZE FAIBLISSENT.
LES
 SST DEVIENNENT PLUS FRAICHES, LIMITANT ALORS L'INTENSIFICATION.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST
-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, PUIS ACCELERER EN DIRECTION
DU
SUD-OUEST, SON FLUX DIRECTEUR ETANT UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE EN
 SON SUD QUI VA SE DECALER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST DU SYSTEME.=



** WTIO20 FMEE 150637 ***
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY    15/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA
POSITION:           13.1S / 70.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST
) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING
UP TO
 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN
 QUADRANT..

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KTAND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM
RADIUS
 OF THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS
 OF THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS  WITHIN 60 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT,
AND
UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 18 UTC:
13.2S / 69.7E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 06 UTC:
13.6S / 68.4E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ANJA KEEPS ON QUICKLY INTENSIFYING WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT
24
HOURS,  THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND FINALLY SOUTHWARDS BEYOND.=



** WTIO30 FMEE 150637 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4  (ANJA)

2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0600 UTC :
13.1S / 70.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.0/5.0 /D  1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 220   SO: 250   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 18 UTC: 13.2S/69.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 13.6S/68.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.6S/67.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 15.9S/66.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 18.9S/65.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
REANALYSIS AT 00Z : T=4.0+.
ANJA IS A MIDGET WHICH REACTS QUICKLY TO THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
RESPECT.
DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, MSLP IS ESTIMATED HIGHER.

THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD
EQUATORWARD
INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLARWARD INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEME IS STILL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A MAIN
EFFICIENT
UPPER LEVELS  POLEWARDS OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN
THE
 NEXT 36 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN,
AND
 SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE
STEERING FLOW IS A MID-LATITUDES RIDGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.=



** WTIO21 FMEE 150637 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 005/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS D'OURAGAN
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE:         CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA
POSITION:           13.1S / 70.4E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 2 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT
JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-EST.

OURAGAN 65/80 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE
TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER  GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE
COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30
MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE  60 MN
AUTOUR
 DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET
JUSQU'A
 140 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.


PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 18 UTC:
13.2S / 69.7E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE.
A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 06 UTC:
13.6S / 68.4E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
ANJA CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES TRES FAVORABLES.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
POUR
 LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, PUIS RECOURBER VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS LE
SUD
AU-DELA.=



** WTIO30 FMEE 150637 ***
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4  (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0600 UTC :
13.1S / 70.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.0/5.0 /D  1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 220   SO: 250   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 18 UTC: 13.2S/69.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 13.6S/68.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.6S/67.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 15.9S/66.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 18.9S/65.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
REANALYSIS AT 00Z : T=4.0+.
ANJA IS A MIDGET WHICH REACTS QUICKLY TO THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL

END OF PART ONE



** WTIO20 FMEE 150637 ***
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY    15/11/2009 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA
POSITION:           13.1S / 70.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST
) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING
UP TO
 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN
 QUADRANT..
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KTAND PHENOMENAL SEAS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM
RADIUS
 OF THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS
 OF THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS  WITHIN 60 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT,
AND
UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 18 UTC:
13.2S / 69.7E, MAX WIND =
END OF PART ONE



** WTIO31 FMEE 150637 ***
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN           : 5/4/20092010
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4  (ANJA)
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/11/2009 :
13.1S / 70.4E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 2 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK            : 5.0/5.0 /D  1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE           : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN)       : 80 KT
 RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 45 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 220   SO: 250   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/11/2009 18 UTC: 13.2S/69.7E, VENT MAX=090KT, CYCL. TROP.
INTENSE.
24H: 16/11/2009 06 UTC: 13.6S/68.4E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
36H: 16/11/2009 18 UTC: 14.6S/67.0E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
48H: 17/11/2009 06 UTC: 15.9S/66.0E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP.
TROP..
60H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.3E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP.
TROP..
72H: 18/11/2009 06 UTC: 18.9S/65.3E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP.
MODEREE.
2.B COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+
SYSTEME REANALYSE A 00Z: T=4.0+.
ANJA EST UN PETIT SYSTEME QUI REPOND RAPIDEMENT AUX EXCELLENTES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, ET LES CONTRAINTES DE DVORAK SONT

END OF PART ONE



** WTIO21 FMEE 150637 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 005/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)
VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).
AVIS D'OURAGAN
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENE:         CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANJA) 960 HPA
POSITION:           13.1S / 70.4E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 2 KT
ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT
JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-EST.
OURAGAN 65/80 KT ET MER ENORME PRES DU CENTRE
TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER  GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE
COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30
MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE  60 MN
AUTOUR
 DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET
JUSQU'A
 140 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.
PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 18 UTC:
13.2S / 69.7E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE.
A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 06 UTC:
13.6S / 68.4E, VENT MAX =
END OF PART ONE