** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 150006 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 150006 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 150006 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 004/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 180 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS TRES FAVORABLES EN BASSES COUCHES ET EN ALTITUDE. LA PERTURBATION DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 150006 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 004/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 180 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS TRES FAVORABLES EN BASSES COUCHES ET EN ALTITUDE. LA PERTURBATION DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 150006 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150007 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0000 UTC : 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5. THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLAR INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEME IS NOW UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH TWO EFFICIENT UPPER LEVELS OUTFLOW EQUATOWARDS AND POLARWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AND SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NETX 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD, ITS STEERINF FLOW IS A MID LATITUDES RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH THAT WILL MOVE IN ITS EAST PROGRESSIVLY.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 150007 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/4/20092010 1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/11/2009 : 12.9S / 70.6E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST) DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 45 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 15/11/2009 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H: 16/11/2009 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 36H: 16/11/2009 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 48H: 17/11/2009 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 60H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 72H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=3.5. LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE RAPIDEMENT ET SE TROUVE ACTUELLEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE INFRA-ROUGE MONTRENT MAINTENANT UN COEUR CHAUD. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT TRES FAVORABLES AVEC UNE BONNE ALIMENTATION COTE EQUATORIAL, TRES BONNE ALIMENTATION COTE POLAIRE AVEC L 'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL QUI VIENT SE POSITIONNER AU SUD DU SYSTEME. LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE MAINTENANT SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE, ET BENEIFICIE DE DEUX CANAUX EFFICACES D'EVACUATION COTE EQUATORIAL ET POLAIRE. CES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES SONT PREVUES PERDURER AU COURS DES DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS. ENSUITE AU DELA DE L'ECHEANCE 48, LES FLUX DE MOUSSON ET L'ALIZE FAIBLISSENT. LES SST DEVIENNENT PLUS FRAICHES, LIMITANT ALORS L'INTENSIFICATION. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, PUIS ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, SON FLUX DIRECTEUR ETANT UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN SON SUD QUI VA SE DECALER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST DU SYSTEME.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150007 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0000 UTC : 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5. THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLAR INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEME IS NOW UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH TWO EFFICIENT UPPER LEVELS OUTFLOW EQUATOWARDS AND POLARWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AND SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NETX 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD, ITS STEERINF FLOW IS A MID LATITUDES RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH THAT WILL MOVE IN ITS EAST PROGRESSIVLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150007 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0000 UTC : 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5. THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD END OF PART ONE ** WTIO31 FMEE 150007 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/4/20092010 1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/11/2009 : 12.9S / 70.6E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST) DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 45 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 15/11/2009 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H: 16/11/2009 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 36H: 16/11/2009 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 48H: 17/11/2009 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 60H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 72H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=3.5. LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE RAPIDEMENT ET SE TROUVE ACTUELLEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE INFRA-ROUGE MONTRENT MAINTENANT UN COEUR CHAUD. END OF PART ONE ** WTIO20 FMEE 150038 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 150038 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 004/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 180 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS TRES FAVORABLES EN BASSES COUCHES ET EN ALTITUDE. LA PERTURBATION DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 150038 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150038 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20092010 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0000 UTC : 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5. THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLAR INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEME IS NOW UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH TWO EFFICIENT UPPER LEVELS OUTFLOW EQUATOWARDS AND POLARWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AND SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NETX 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD, ITS STEERINF FLOW IS A MID LATITUDES RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH THAT WILL MOVE IN ITS EAST PROGRESSIVLY.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 150038 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/4/20092010 1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/11/2009 : 12.9S / 70.6E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST) DEPLACEMENT : QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN /10 MN) : 45 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 15/11/2009 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H: 16/11/2009 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 36H: 16/11/2009 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 48H: 17/11/2009 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 60H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 72H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=3.5. LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE RAPIDEMENT ET SE TROUVE ACTUELLEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE INFRA-ROUGE MONTRENT MAINTENANT UN COEUR CHAUD. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT TRES FAVORABLES AVEC UNE BONNE ALIMENTATION COTE EQUATORIAL, TRES BONNE ALIMENTATION COTE POLAIRE AVEC L 'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL QUI VIENT SE POSITIONNER AU SUD DU SYSTEME. LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE MAINTENANT SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE, ET BENEIFICIE DE DEUX CANAUX EFFICACES D'EVACUATION COTE EQUATORIAL ET POLAIRE. CES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES SONT PREVUES PERDURER AU COURS DES DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS. ENSUITE AU DELA DE L'ECHEANCE 48, LES FLUX DE MOUSSON ET L'ALIZE FAIBLISSENT. LES SST DEVIENNENT PLUS FRAICHES, LIMITANT ALORS L'INTENSIFICATION. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, PUIS ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, SON FLUX DIRECTEUR ETANT UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN SON SUD QUI VA SE DECALER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST DU SYSTEME.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150038 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20092010 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0000 UTC : 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5. THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLAR INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEME IS NOW UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH TWO EFFICIENT UPPER LEVELS OUTFLOW EQUATOWARDS AND POLARWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AND SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NETX 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD, ITS STEERINF FLOW IS A MID LATITUDES RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH THAT WILL MOVE IN ITS EAST PROGRESSIVLY.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 150038 CCA *** ??????????????? CORRECTIVE ?????????????? SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2009 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150038 CCA *** ??????????????? CORRECTIVE ?????????????? RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20092010 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0000 UTC : 12.9S / 70.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5. THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE NOT YET WELL END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 150038 CCA *** ??????????????? CORRECTIF ??????????????? METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 004/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 180 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS TRES FAVORABLES EN BASSES COUCHES ET EN ALTITUDE. LA PERTURBATION DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 150038 CCA *** ??????????????? CORRECTIF ??????????????? CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/4/20092010 1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/11/2009 : 12.9S / 70.6E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST) DEPLACEMENT : QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN /10 MN) : 45 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 15/11/2009 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H: 16/11/2009 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 36H: 16/11/2009 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 48H: 17/11/2009 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 60H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 72H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=3.5. LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE RAPIDEMENT ET SE TROUVE ACTUELLEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE INFRA-ROUGE MONTRENT MAINTENANT UN END OF PART ONE ** WTIO21 FMEE 150038 CCA *** ??????????????? CORRECTIF ??????????????? METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 004/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 15/11/2009 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (ANJA) 985 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 70.6E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 180 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 12 UTC: 13.3S / 70.3E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 16/11/2009 A 00 UTC: 13.6S / 69.4E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS TRES FAVORABLES EN BASSES COUCHES ET EN ALTITUDE. LA PERTURBATION DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 150038 CCA *** ??????????????? CORRECTIF ??????????????? CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/4/20092010 1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (ANJA) 2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/11/2009 : 12.9S / 70.6E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST) DEPLACEMENT : QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN /10 MN) : 45 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 15/11/2009 12 UTC: 13.3S/70.3E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H: 16/11/2009 00 UTC: 13.6S/69.4E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 36H: 16/11/2009 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.0E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 48H: 17/11/2009 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.7E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 60H: 17/11/2009 12 UTC: 16.8S/65.5E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 72H: 18/11/2009 00 UTC: 18.3S/65.2E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=3.5. LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE RAPIDEMENT ET SE TROUVE ACTUELLEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE INFRA-ROUGE MONTRENT MAINTENANT UN END OF PART ONE ** WTXS51 PGTW 150300 *** WARNING ATCP MIL 01S SIO 091115011216 2009111500 01S ANJA 003 01 270 01 SATL 020 T000 129S 0705E 090 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T012 131S 0699E 100 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T024 134S 0688E 110 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 138S 0676E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD T048 151S 0661E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD T072 187S 0662E 085 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T096 223S 0685E 055 T120 261S 0731E 040 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 70.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 70.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.1S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.4S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.8S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.1S 66.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.7S 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.3S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 26.1S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 70.4E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z. // 0109111300 97S 730E 15 0109111306 102S 724E 20 0109111312 108S 719E 25 0109111318 114S 715E 30 0109111400 120S 712E 30 0109111406 126S 710E 40 0109111412 128S 708E 45 0109111418 129S 706E 50 0109111500 129S 705E 90 0109111500 129S 705E 90 0109111500 129S 705E 90 ** WTXS31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 70.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 70.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.1S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.4S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.8S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.1S 66.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.7S 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.3S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 26.1S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 70.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM WAS LIKELY MUCH STRONGER THAN 45 KNOTS AT 141800Z BASED ON A SLEW OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT INDICATED INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING AN EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN MISREPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY BASED ON THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE DEVELOPING A 16 NM EYE AT AROUND 142230Z THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE BECOME MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES. ACCORDINGLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON A 5.0 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FROM PGTW. IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY UNDERESTIMATE, THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA HAS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMMENSELY, WHICH HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEEPEN NEAR THE CENTER. AND LASTLY, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY. THE MOST CURRENT MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS STALL IS A RESULT OF A NARROW EXTENSION OF DEEP-LAYER RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT INTO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE EAST, IN ADDITION TO THE COMPETING ASPECTS OF THE DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. NEAR TAU 72 A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THIS RIDGE, AND WILL PROMOTE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AND A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ABOUT TAU 72. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THOUGH IT IS MUCH SLOWER IN THE EARLIER TAUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT SLOW DOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//