** WTNT80 EGRR 141800 ***

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.11.2009


 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP
 IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 141640


** WTIO20 FMEE 141821 ***
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/11/2009
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY  14/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 991 HPA
POSITION:           13.1S / 70.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO
150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM  IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN
 SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
CENTER.$
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM FROM
THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 06 UTC:
13.3S / 70.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 18 UTC:
13.5S / 70.0E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY WEST
SOUTH-WESTWARD
 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.=


** WTIO30 FMEE 141821 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/4/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4

2.A POSITION 2009/11/14 AT 1800 UTC :
13.1S / 70.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 100   SE: 180   SO: 300   NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 06 UTC: 13.3S/70.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/11/15 18 UTC: 13.5S/70.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 14.0S/69.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 15.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 16.1S/66.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.5S/64.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0.

THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING HOT SPOT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD
EQUATORWARD
INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLAR INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES
 CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEME IS NOW UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH TWO EFFICIENT
UPPER
LEVELS OUTFLOW EQUATOWARDS AND POLARWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN
THE
 NEXT 48 HOURS AT LEAST.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE NETX 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD, ITS
STEERINF FLOW IS A MID LATITUDES RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH THAT WILL MOVE IN
ITS
 EAST PROGRESSIVLY.=


** WTIO21 FMEE 141821 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 14/11/2009 A 1800 UTC.
NUMERO: 003/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS DE COUP DE VENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 14/11/2009 A 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENE:         TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (ANJA) 991 HPA
POSITION:           13.1S / 70.7E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1800 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       SUD 4 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT
JUSQU'A
 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET  JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE SECTEUR
SUD-EST.

COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30KT  ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN
AUTOUR
 DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 180 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.


PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 06 UTC:
13.3S / 70.5E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP..
A 24H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 18 UTC:
13.5S / 70.0E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP..

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS
TRES
FAVORABLES EN BASSES COUCHES ET EN ALTITUDE.
LA PERTURBATION DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS L'OUEST  SUD-OUEST
DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.=



** WTIO20 FMEE 141821 ***
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/11/2009
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY  14/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 991 HPA
POSITION:           13.1S / 70.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO
150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM  IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN
 SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
CENTER.$
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM FROM
THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 06 UTC:
13.3S / 70.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 18 UTC:
13.5S / 70.0E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY WEST
SOUTH-WESTWARD
 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.=



** WTIO31 FMEE 141821 ***


CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN           : 3/4/20092010
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/11/2009 :
13.1S / 70.7E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK            : 3.0/3.0 /D  1.0/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE           : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN)       : 40 KT
 RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 100   SE: 180   SO: 300   NO: 100

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/11/2009 06 UTC: 13.3S/70.5E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP.
TROP..
24H: 15/11/2009 18 UTC: 13.5S/70.0E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP.
TROP..
36H: 16/11/2009 06 UTC: 14.0S/69.2E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
48H: 16/11/2009 18 UTC: 15.1S/67.5E, VENT MAX=075KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
60H: 17/11/2009 06 UTC: 16.1S/66.2E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP.
TROP..
72H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 17.5S/64.9E, VENT MAX=045KT, TEMP. TROP.
MODEREE.

2.B COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0.

LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE RAPIDEMENT ET SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT
LENTEMENT
VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE INFRA-ROUGE MONTRENT UN POINT CHAUD EN
CONSTRUCTION.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT TRES FAVORABLES AVEC UNE
BONNE
ALIMENTATION COTE EQUATORIAL, TRES BONNE ALIMENTATION COTE POLAIRE
AVEC L
'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL QUI VIENT SE POSITIONNER AU SUD DU SYSTEME.
LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE MAINTENANT SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE, ET
BENIFIE DE
 DEUX CANAUX EFFICACES D'EVACUATION COTE EQUATORIAL ET POLAIRE.
CES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES SONT PREVUES PERDURER AU COURS DES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST
 SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, PUIS ACCELERER EN DIRECTION
DU
SUD-OUEST, SON FLUX DIRECTEUR ETANT UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE EN
 SON SUD QUI VA SE DECALER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST DU SYSTEME.=



** WTIO30 FMEE 141821 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/4/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4

2.A POSITION 2009/11/14 AT 1800 UTC :
13.1S / 70.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 100   SE: 180   SO: 300   NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 06 UTC: 13.3S/70.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/11/15 18 UTC: 13.5S/70.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 14.0S/69.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 15.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 16.1S/66.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.5S/64.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0.

THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING HOT SPOT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD
EQUATORWARD
INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLAR INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES
 CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEME IS NOW UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH TWO EFFICIENT
UPPER
LEVELS OUTFLOW EQUATOWARDS AND POLARWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN
THE
 NEXT 48 HOURS AT LEAST.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE NETX 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD, ITS
STEERINF FLOW IS A MID LATITUDES RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH THAT WILL MOVE IN
ITS
 EAST PROGRESSIVLY.=



** WTIO21 FMEE 141821 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 14/11/2009 A 1800 UTC.
NUMERO: 003/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)
VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).
AVIS DE COUP DE VENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 14/11/2009 A 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENE:         TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (ANJA) 991 HPA
POSITION:           13.1S / 70.7E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1800 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       SUD 4 KT
ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT
JUSQU'A
 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET  JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE SECTEUR
SUD-EST.
COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30KT  ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN
AUTOUR
 DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 180 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.
PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 06 UTC:
13.3S / 70.5E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP..
A 24H POUR LE 15/11/2009 A 18 UTC:
13.5S / 70.0E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP..
INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS
TRES
FAVORABLES EN BASSES COUCHES ET EN ALTITUDE.
LA PERTURBATION DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS L'OUEST  SUD-OUEST
DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.=



** WTIO20 FMEE 141821 ***
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/11/2009
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY  14/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON:        MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (ANJA) 991 HPA
POSITION:           13.1S / 70.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO
150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM  IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN
 SECTOR.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
CENTER.?
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM FROM
THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 06 UTC:
13.3S / 70.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2009/11/15 AT 18 UTC:
13.5S / 70.0E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS DEEPEN ING RAPIDLY WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LAYERS.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY WEST
SOUTH-WESTWARD
 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.=



** WTIO31 FMEE 141821 ***
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN           : 3/4/20092010
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/11/2009 :
13.1S / 70.7E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK            : 3.0/3.0 /D  1.0/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE           : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN)       : 40 KT
 RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 100   SE: 180   SO: 300   NO: 100
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/11/2009 06 UTC: 13.3S/70.5E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP.
TROP..
24H: 15/11/2009 18 UTC: 13.5S/70.0E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP.
TROP..
36H: 16/11/2009 06 UTC: 14.0S/69.2E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
48H: 16/11/2009 18 UTC: 15.1S/67.5E, VENT MAX=075KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
60H: 17/11/2009 06 UTC: 16.1S/66.2E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP.
TROP..
72H: 17/11/2009 18 UTC: 17.5S/64.9E, VENT MAX=045KT, TEMP. TROP.
MODEREE.
2.B COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0.
LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE RAPIDEMENT ET SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT
LENTEMENT
VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE INFRA-ROUGE MONTRENT UN POINT CHAUD EN
CONSTRUCTION.

END OF PART ONE



** WTIO30 FMEE 141821 ***
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/4/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4
2.A POSITION 2009/11/14 AT 1800 UTC :
13.1S / 70.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 100   SE: 180   SO: 300   NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 06 UTC: 13.3S/70.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/11/15 18 UTC: 13.5S/70.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 14.0S/69.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 15.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 16.1S/66.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.5S/64.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0.
THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING HOT SPOT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD

END OF PART ONE



** WTXS51 PGTW 142100 ***
WARNING    ATCP MIL 01S SIO 091114195437
2009111418 01S ONE        002  01 215 04 SATL 060
T000 131S 0706E 045 R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 135S 0699E 050 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 141S 0688E 055 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 148S 0678E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 155S 0669E 065 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 170S 0661E 070 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 199S 0670E 060
T120 229S 0698E 045
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 70.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 70.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 13.5S 69.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 14.1S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 14.8S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 15.5S 66.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 17.0S 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 19.9S 67.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 22.9S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 70.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.
//
0109111300  97S 730E  15
0109111306 102S 724E  20
0109111312 108S 719E  25
0109111318 114S 715E  30
0109111400 120S 712E  30
0109111406 126S 710E  40
0109111412 128S 708E  45
0109111418 131S 706E  45


** WTXS31 PGTW 142100 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 70.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 70.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 13.5S 69.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 14.1S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 14.8S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 15.5S 66.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 17.0S 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 19.9S 67.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 22.9S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE (WESTWARD AND POLEWARD)
VENTING ALOFT. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE, EVIDENT IN NUMEROUS IMAGES OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 45 KNOTS
DESPITE A SOMEWHAT WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ANJA IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE CENTER
TO THE EAST. THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY ERODE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH NEAR DAY 4 AND WILL INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO RECURVATURE DUE TO ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY THEREAFTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS ANJA BEGINS TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST TRACK
REFLECTS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//