** WTNT80 EGRR 131800 ***

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.11.2009


 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP
 IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 131623


** WTXS21 PGTW 140000 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 73.0E TO 14.8S 67.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 71.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S
72.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 71.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 132047Z AMSRE PASS INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS (131623Z ASCAT) INDICATES
WINDS AS STRONG AS 25 KNOTS AT THE CENTER. IT IS LIKELY THE
CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER, AND THE
IMPRESSIVE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO RELAX AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL VENTING IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150000Z.//