** WTNT80 EGRR 110600 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.11.2009 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 25.5N 64.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.11.2009 25.5N 64.8W WEAK 12UTC 11.11.2009 26.8N 66.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.11.2009 29.1N 66.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.11.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110439 ** WTIO51 PGTW 110900 *** WARNING ATCP MIL 04A NIO 091111070716 2009111106 04A PHYAN 007 01 015 15 SATL 060 T000 178N 0729E 050 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD T012 199N 0734E 045 T024 221N 0740E 030 T036 242N 0744E 020 AMP 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 72.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 72.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 19.9N 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 22.1N 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 24.2N 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 73.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110424Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN INDIA COAST, JUST SOUTH OF MUMBAI. MUMBAI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NNE WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 995MB SUPPORTING A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF MUMBAI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. A 110426Z ASCAT IMAGE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MUMBAI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS DUE TO FURTHER LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND; THE UKMO AND TC-LAPS MODELS ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND TRACK 04A ALONG AND WEST OF THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE OVER-LAND TRACK AND IS POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.// 0409110500 42N 801E 15 0409110506 47N 796E 15 0409110512 59N 790E 15 0409110518 63N 787E 15 0409110600 66N 783E 15 0409110606 67N 780E 15 0409110612 70N 780E 20 0409110618 71N 782E 20 0409110700 73N 786E 25 0409110706 75N 793E 25 0409110712 81N 791E 25 0409110718 86N 787E 25 0409110800 98N 773E 25 0409110806 100N 760E 25 0409110812 102N 750E 25 0409110818 104N 741E 25 0409110900 107N 729E 25 0409110906 113N 714E 30 0409110912 118N 712E 30 0409110918 125N 710E 35 0409111000 133N 711E 35 0409111006 141N 712E 40 0409111012 149N 715E 45 0409111018 155N 719E 50 0409111100 163N 725E 50 0409111106 178N 729E 50 ** WTIO31 PGTW 110900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 72.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 72.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 19.9N 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 22.1N 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 24.2N 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 73.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110424Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN INDIA COAST, JUST SOUTH OF MUMBAI. MUMBAI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NNE WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 995MB SUPPORTING A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF MUMBAI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. A 110426Z ASCAT IMAGE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MUMBAI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS DUE TO FURTHER LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND; THE UKMO AND TC-LAPS MODELS ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND TRACK 04A ALONG AND WEST OF THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE OVER-LAND TRACK AND IS POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.// ** WTNT31 KWNH 110847 *** TCPAT1 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 30 FOR REMNANTS OF IDA NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL112009 0400 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2009 ...HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA TO VIRGINIA... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG LARGE SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. AT 0400 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST...NEAR MARIANA FLORIDA OR 60 MILES...95 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AND 110 MILES...195 KM...SOUTH OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...30 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 4 AM EST ...ALABAMA... FOLEY 0.5 ESE 6.61 SUMMERDALE 2.5 ESE 6.13 PHENIX CITY 2 NNW 6.00 ELBERTA 3.1 SSW 5.84 BREWTON 3 SSE 5.50 ATMORE 12 N 5.41 OPELIKA 11.0 S 5.40 ORANGE BEACH 3.0 ENE 5.04 THEODORE 3.0 S 5.00 SEALE 3 ESE 4.71 MOBILE 5.7 WSW 4.49 GADSDEN 4.40 TROY MUNI ARPT 4.40 ALABASTER/SHELBY CO. ARPT 4.38 POLLARD 2.4 N 4.26 MAGNOLIA SPRINGS 2 E 4.22 WALLACE 2 E 4.15 TILLMANS CORNER 3.4 WNW 4.14 LADONIA 13.2 SSW 4.11 BIRMINGHAM MUNI ARPT 3.88 ...FLORIDA... GONALEZ 2.5 NNW 6.74 PORT ST. JOE 0.6 SE 6.32 ENSLEY 2.1 ENE 5.36 BELLVIEW 1.7 NW 5.09 PACE 2.4 N 4.56 CRESTVIEW 4.53 MILTON 17.7 NNE 4.50 PENSACOLA 3.8 N 4.40 DE FUNIAK SPRINGS 12 WNW 3.82 MILLIGAN 3.55 NICEVILLE 3.10 VALPARAISO 2.47 ...GEORGIA... COLUMBUS METRO ARPT 5.81 FORT BENNING 5.75 ATLANTA/FULTON CTY AIRPORT 4.59 PEACHTREE CITY/ATLANTA WFO 4.56 ATLANTA HARTSFIELD 4.38 CARTERSVILLE AIRPORT 4.36 DOBBINS AFB/MARIETTA 4.20 GAINSVILLE 3.82 VILLA RICA 4.6 SE 3.06 FORT GAINES 3 NNW 2.48 WEST POINT 2.39 TALABOTTON 2.10 GEORGETOWN 4 ENE 2.00 ...MISSISSIPPI... WIGGINS 6 E 4.08 WAYNESBORO 2 W 4.05 PASCAGOULA 3 NE 3.42 VANCLEAVE 4.1 NNW 3.34 NEW AUGUSTA 1 N 3.28 OCEAN SPRINGS 3.3 E 3.24 MOSS POINT 10.2 NE 3.10 BUCKATUNNA 3.10 SHUBUTA 2.98 CRANDALL 12 N 2.95 KEESLER AFB/BILOXI 2.49 ...TENNESSEE... CHATTANOOGA 2.68 KNOXVILLE 2.22 TRI CITIES 1.71 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... GREENVILLE 3.24 GREENWOOD 3.19 ANDERSON 3.06 COLUMBIA 1.73 ...NORTH CAROLINA... ASHEVILLE 2.99 HICKORY 2.37 CHARLOTTE 1.88 RALEIGH 1.38 GREENSBORO 1.05 BY THURSDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ...SUMMARY OF 0400 AM EST INFORMATION... LOCATION...30.7N 85.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST OR 090 DEGREES AT 8 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 AM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. KOCIN FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 10/0600Z 30.7N 85.3W 12HR VT 10/1800Z 30.9N 82.1W...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 11/0600Z ...OVER WATER $$