** WTIO21 FMEE 220019 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 22/02/2008 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 039/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 22/02/2008 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10 (EX-HONDO) 998 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4S / 59.7E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 220 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 75 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQUE 95 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 22/02/2008 A 12 UTC: 18.9S / 59.1E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 23/02/2008 A 00 UTC: 19.7S / 58.2E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: EX-HONDO SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT TRES LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. IL EST PREVU ACCELERER REGULIEREMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD -OUEST DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. IL POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER GRADUELLEMENT MAIS LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE DELICATE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 220019 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/02/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 039/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/02/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 59.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FRON THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/22 AT 12 UTC: 18.9S / 59.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2008/02/23 AT 00 UTC: 19.7S / 58.2E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-HONDO IS NOW SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED ACCELERATING ON THIS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT COULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BUT FORECASTING OF INTENSITY REMAINS DELICATE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 220019 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/02/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 039/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/02/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 59.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FRON THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/22 AT 12 UTC: 18.9S / 59.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2008/02/23 AT 00 UTC: 19.7S / 58.2E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-HONDO IS NOW SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED ACCELERATING ON THIS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT COULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BUT FORECASTING OF INTENSITY REMAINS DELICATE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 220021 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 59.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/22 12 UTC: 18.9S/59.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 19.7S/58.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 21.0S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.6S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 24.1S/51.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 25.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- AND CI=2.5 EX-HONDO IS NOW SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER AND A BROKEN CURVED BAND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DIFFICULT IN THE BORDER OF A QUICK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR LINE EXISTING WEST OF 57E. THE RIDGE EFFECT IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEAKENING THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED ACCELERATING ON THIS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, SO SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BUT FORECASTING OF INTENSITY REMAINS DELICATE. BEYOND 48 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED UNDERGOING AN INFORCING EASTERLY WINDSHEAR AND A LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC POTENTIAL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 220021 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 59.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/22 12 UTC: 18.9S/59.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 19.7S/58.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 21.0S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.6S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 24.1S/51.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 25.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- AND CI=2.5 EX-HONDO IS NOW SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER AND A BROKEN CURVED BAND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DIFFICULT IN THE BORDER OF A QUICK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR LINE EXISTING WEST OF 57E. THE RIDGE EFFECT IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEAKENING THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED ACCELERATING ON THIS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, SO SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BUT FORECASTING OF INTENSITY REMAINS DELICATE. BEYOND 48 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED UNDERGOING AN INFORCING EASTERLY WINDSHEAR AND A LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC POTENTIAL. .