** WTIO22 FMEE 311820 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 990 HPA POSITION: 24.3S / 57.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 23 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY 45KT IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 06 UTC: 28.7S / 56.3E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 18 UTC: 32.9S / 58.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE EASTSOUTEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GULA HAS ACCELERATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH LOCATED IN ITS SOUTH. IT HAS LIGHLY INTENSIFIED, BUT FAVIRABLE CONDIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST THIS NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TAKING THIS TROUGH AND MAKING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 311820 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 990 HPA POSITION: 24.3S / 57.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 23 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY 45KT IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 06 UTC: 28.7S / 56.3E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 18 UTC: 32.9S / 58.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE EASTSOUTEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GULA HAS ACCELERATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH LOCATED IN ITS SOUTH. IT HAS LIGHLY INTENSIFIED, BUT FAVIRABLE CONDIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST THIS NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TAKING THIS TROUGH AND MAKING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 311820 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 31/01/2008 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 022/09 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 31/01/2008 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GULA) 990 HPA POSITION: 24.3S / 57.4E (VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 23 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, POUVANT ATTEINDRE LOCALEMENT 45KT DANS LE SECTEUR EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S 'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/02/2008 A 06 UTC: 28.7S / 56.3E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 01/02/2008 A 18 UTC: 32.9S / 58.7E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA PARTIE LA PLUS DANGEUREUSE DU SYSTEME EST SITUEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST-SUD-EST. GULA FILE A TOUTE ALLURE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST, SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES EN DIRECTION D'UN THALWEG POLAIRE TRANSITANT DANS SON SUD. LE SYSTEME S'EST LEGEREMENT RE-INTENSIFIE MAIS LES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES NE DEVRAIENT DURER QUE QUELQUES HEURES CETTE NUIT. IL DEVRAIT PRENDRE LE THALWEG ET EFFECTUER SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES AVANT DE S'EVACUER VERS LE SUD-EST DANS LE FLUX D'OUEST DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 311828 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 985 HPA POSITION: 24.3S / 57.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 23 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM WINDS 50KT AND HIGH SEAS WHITHIN 15NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 06 UTC: 28.7S / 56.3E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 18 UTC: 32.9S / 58.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CORRECTIVE FOR THE INTENSITY. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE EASTSOUTEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GULA HAS ACCELERATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH LOCATED IN ITS SOUTH. IT HAS INTENSIFIED, BUT FAVORABLE CONDIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST THIS NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THIS TROUGH AND MAKE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 311828 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 31/01/2008 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 022/09 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 31/01/2008 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GULA) 985 HPA POSITION: 24.3S / 57.4E (VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 23 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-EST. TEMPETE 50KT ET MER GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S 'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/02/2008 A 06 UTC: 28.7S / 56.3E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 01/02/2008 A 18 UTC: 32.9S / 58.7E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CORRECTIF INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. LA PARTIE LA PLUS DANGEUREUSE DU SYSTEME EST SITUEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST-SUD-EST. GULA FILE A TOUTE ALLURE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST, SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES EN DIRECTION D'UN THALWEG POLAIRE TRANSITANT DANS SON SUD. LE SYSTEME S'EST RE-INTENSIFIE MAIS LES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES NE DEVRAIENT DURER QUE QUELQUES HEURES CETTE NUIT. IL DEVRAIT PRENDRE LE THALWEG ET EFFECTUER SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES AVANT DE S'EVACUER VERS LE SUD-EST DANS LE FLUX D'OUEST DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 311828 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 985 HPA POSITION: 24.3S / 57.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 23 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM WINDS 50KT AND HIGH SEAS WHITHIN 15NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 06 UTC: 28.7S / 56.3E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 18 UTC: 32.9S / 58.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CORRECTIVE FOR THE INTENSITY. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE EASTSOUTEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GULA HAS ACCELERATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH LOCATED IN ITS SOUTH. IT HAS INTENSIFIED, BUT FAVORABLE CONDIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST THIS NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THIS TROUGH AND MAKE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 311828 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 985 HPA POSITION: 24.3S / 57.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 23 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM WINDS 50KT AND HIGH SEAS WHITHIN 15NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 06 UTC: 28.7S / 56.3E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 18 UTC: 32.9S / 58.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CORRECTIVE FOR THE INTENSITY. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE EASTSOUTEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GULA HAS ACCELERATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH LOCATED IN ITS SOUTH. IT HAS INTENSIFIED, BUT FAVORABLE CONDIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST THIS NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THIS TROUGH AND MAKE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 311835 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 999 HPA POSITION: 21.5S / 52.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS FAR FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO MORE THAN 600 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTORS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WHITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 06 UTC: . 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 18 UTC: . OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOCATION HAS TO BE CONFIRMED WITH THE CIRCULATION IS ASYMETRIC DUE TO THE GRADIANT WHITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST, WHAT EXPLAIN THE NEAR GALE WINDS FAR IN THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AN IMPORTANT NORTHWESTWARDS CONSTRAINT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-FAME HAS STARTED TO MAKE A LOOP TOWARDS THE TROPICAL STORM GULA, WHICH IS TRACKING QUIKCLY SOUTHWARDS. EX-FAME SHOULD FOLLOW GULA , EVACUATING SOUTHWARDS, AND THEN DISSIPATE IN THE TROUGH OF GULA.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 311835 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 31/01/2008 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 027/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 31/01/2008 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 8 (EX-FAME) 999 HPA POSITION: 21.5S / 52.5E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 11 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS PRESENT LOIN DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A PLUS DE 600 MN DU CENTRE DANS LES SECTEURS SUD ET SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 180 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/02/2008 A 06 UTC: .. A 24H POUR LE 01/02/2008 A 18 UTC: .. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION EST DISYMETRIQUE EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT DANS SON SUD-OUEST, D'OU L'EXTENTION DU GRAND FRAIS LOIN AU SUD. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST BALAYEE LOIN VERS LE SUD-EST EN RAISON D'UNE IMPORTANTE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST. LA DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-FAME A ENTAME UNE BOUCLE EN DIRECTION DE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE GULA QUI DESCEND RAPIDEMENT VERS LE SUD (EN AFFAIBLISSANT LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE), ET A LAQUELLE ELLE DEVRAIT EMBOITER LE PAS. EX-FAME DEVRAIT DONC S'EVACUER VERS LE SUD DANS LE TALWEG CREE PAR GULA PUIS S'Y DISSIPER. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 311835 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 999 HPA POSITION: 21.5S / 52.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS FAR FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO MORE THAN 600 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTORS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WHITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 06 UTC: .. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 18 UTC: .. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOCATION HAS TO BE CONFIRMED WITH THE CIRCULATION IS ASYMETRIC DUE TO THE GRADIANT WHITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST, WHAT EXPLAIN THE NEAR GALE WINDS FAR IN THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AN IMPORTANT NORTHWESTWARDS CONSTRAINT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-FAME HAS STARTED TO MAKE A LOOP TOWARDS THE TROPICAL STORM GULA, WHICH IS TRACKING QUIKCLY SOUTHWARDS. EX-FAME SHOULD FOLLOW GULA , EVACUATING SOUTHWARDS, AND THEN DISSIPATE IN THE TROUGH OF GULA. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 311835 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 31/01/2008 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 027/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 31/01/2008 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 8 (EX-FAME) 999 HPA POSITION: 21.5S / 52.5E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 11 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS PRESENT LOIN DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A PLUS DE 600 MN DU CENTRE DANS LES SECTEURS SUD ET SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 180 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/02/2008 A 06 UTC: .. A 24H POUR LE 01/02/2008 A 18 UTC: .. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION EST DISYMETRIQUE EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT DANS SON SUD-OUEST, D'OU L'EXTENTION DU GRAND FRAIS LOIN AU SUD. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST BALAYEE LOIN VERS LE SUD-EST EN RAISON D'UNE IMPORTANTE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST. LA DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-FAME A ENTAME UNE BOUCLE EN DIRECTION DE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE GULA QUI DESCEND RAPIDEMENT VERS LE SUD (EN AFFAIBLISSANT LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE), ET A LAQUELLE ELLE DEVRAIT EMBOITER LE PAS. EX-FAME DEVRAIT DONC S'EVACUER VERS LE SUD DANS LE TALWEG CREE PAR GULA PUIS S'Y DISSIPER. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 311835 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 999 HPA POSITION: 21.5S / 52.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS FAR FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO MORE THAN 600 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTORS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WHITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 06 UTC: .. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 18 UTC: .. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOCATION HAS TO BE CONFIRMED WITH THE CIRCULATION IS ASYMETRIC DUE TO THE GRADIANT WHITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST, WHAT EXPLAIN THE NEAR GALE WINDS FAR IN THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AN IMPORTANT NORTHWESTWARDS CONSTRAINT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-FAME HAS STARTED TO MAKE A LOOP TOWARDS THE TROPICAL STORM GULA, WHICH IS TRACKING QUIKCLY SOUTHWARDS. EX-FAME SHOULD FOLLOW GULA , EVACUATING SOUTHWARDS, AND THEN DISSIPATE IN THE TROUGH OF GULA. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 311841 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 999 HPA POSITION: 21.5S / 52.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS FAR FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO MORE THAN 600 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTORS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WHITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 06 UTC: 22.4S / 55.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 18 UTC: 25.5S / 57.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOCATION HAS TO BE CONFIRMED WITH THE CIRCULATION IS ASYMETRIC DUE TO THE GRADIANT WHITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST, WHAT EXPLAIN THE NEAR GALE WINDS FAR IN THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AN IMPORTANT NORTHWESTWARDS CONSTRAINT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-FAME HAS STARTED TO MAKE A LOOP TOWARDS THE TROPICAL STORM GULA, WHICH IS TRACKING QUIKCLY SOUTHWARDS. EX-FAME SHOULD FOLLOW GULA , EVACUATING SOUTHWARDS, AND THEN DISSIPATE IN THE TROUGH OF GULA.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 311841 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 1800 UTC : 21.5S / 52.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 22.4S/55.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 25.5S/57.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 29.8S/58.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T= 2.0+ AND CI=2.5- THE CIRCULATION IS ASYMETRIC DUE TO THE GRADIENT WHITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST, WHAT EXPLAIN THE NEAR GALE WINDS EXTENSION FAR IN THE SOUTH (SEE QUIKSCAT DATA AT 1422Z). THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AN IMPORTANT NORTHWESTWARDS CONSTRAINT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-FAME HAS STARTED TO MAKE A LOOP TOWARDS THE TROPICAL STORM GULA, WHICH IS TRACKING QUIKCLY SOUTHWARDS. EX-FAME SHOULD FOLLOW GULA , EVACUATING SOUTHWARDS, AND THEN DISSIPATE IN THE TROUGH OF GULA.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 311841 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 999 HPA POSITION: 21.5S / 52.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS FAR FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO MORE THAN 600 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTORS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WHITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 06 UTC: 22.4S / 55.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 18 UTC: 25.5S / 57.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOCATION HAS TO BE CONFIRMED WITH THE CIRCULATION IS ASYMETRIC DUE TO THE GRADIANT WHITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST, WHAT EXPLAIN THE NEAR GALE WINDS FAR IN THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AN IMPORTANT NORTHWESTWARDS CONSTRAINT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-FAME HAS STARTED TO MAKE A LOOP TOWARDS THE TROPICAL STORM GULA, WHICH IS TRACKING QUIKCLY SOUTHWARDS. EX-FAME SHOULD FOLLOW GULA , EVACUATING SOUTHWARDS, AND THEN DISSIPATE IN THE TROUGH OF GULA. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 311841 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 1800 UTC : 21.5S / 52.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 22.4S/55.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 25.5S/57.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 29.8S/58.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T= 2.0+ AND CI=2.5- THE CIRCULATION IS ASYMETRIC DUE TO THE GRADIENT WHITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST, WHAT EXPLAIN THE NEAR GALE WINDS EXTENSION FAR IN THE SOUTH (SEE QUIKSCAT DATA AT 1422Z). THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AN IMPORTANT NORTHWESTWARDS CONSTRAINT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-FAME HAS STARTED TO MAKE A LOOP TOWARDS THE TROPICAL STORM GULA, WHICH IS TRACKING QUIKCLY SOUTHWARDS. EX-FAME SHOULD FOLLOW GULA , EVACUATING SOUTHWARDS, AND THEN DISSIPATE IN THE TROUGH OF GULA. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 311841 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 31/01/2008 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 027/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 31/01/2008 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 8 (EX-FAME) 999 HPA POSITION: 21.5S / 52.5E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 11 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS PRESENT LOIN DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A PLUS DE 600 MN DU CENTRE DANS LES SECTEURS SUD ET SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 180 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/02/2008 A 06 UTC: 22.4S / 55.2E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 01/02/2008 A 18 UTC: 25.5S / 57.5E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, SE DISSIPANT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION EST DISYMETRIQUE EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT DANS SON SUD-OUEST, D'OU L'EXTENTION DU GRAND FRAIS LOIN AU SUD. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST BALAYEE LOIN VERS LE SUD-EST EN RAISON D'UNE IMPORTANTE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST. LA DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-FAME A ENTAME UNE BOUCLE EN DIRECTION DE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE GULA QUI DESCEND RAPIDEMENT VERS LE SUD (EN AFFAIBLISSANT LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE), ET A LAQUELLE ELLE DEVRAIT EMBOITER LE PAS. EX-FAME DEVRAIT DONC S'EVACUER VERS LE SUD DANS LE TALWEG CREE PAR GULA PUIS S'Y DISSIPER. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 311848 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/9/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 1800 UTC : 24.3S / 57.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 070 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 28.7S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 32.9S/58.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 36.2S/62.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/02/02 18 UTC: 40.2S/68.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/02/03 06 UTC: 42.6S/75.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/02/03 18 UTC: 41.9S/82.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 GULA HAS ACCELERATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH LOCATED IN ITS SOUTH. IR AND MICRI-WAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT IT HAS INTENSIFIED (SEE SSMIS AT 1637Z, WHERE SOLID CURVED BAND HAS FORMED IN MID-LEVEL), BUT FAVORABLE CONDIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST THIS NIGHT (DIURNAL CYCLE, AREA OF SST AT 28 DEGRES CELSIUS, POSSIBLE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE TROUGH AND MAKE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 311848 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/9/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 1800 UTC : 24.3S / 57.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 070 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 28.7S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 32.9S/58.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 36.2S/62.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/02/02 18 UTC: 40.2S/68.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/02/03 06 UTC: 42.6S/75.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/02/03 18 UTC: 41.9S/82.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 GULA HAS ACCELERATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH LOCATED IN ITS SOUTH. IR AND MICRI-WAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT IT HAS INTENSIFIED (SEE SSMIS AT 1637Z, WHERE SOLID CURVED BAND HAS FORMED IN MID-LEVEL), BUT FAVORABLE CONDIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST THIS NIGHT (DIURNAL CYCLE, AREA OF SST AT 28 DEGRES CELSIUS, POSSIBLE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE TROUGH AND MAKE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. . ** WTPS11 NFFN 311800 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 31/1954 UTC 2008 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [945HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.8S 170.5E AT 311800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. COLD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. COLD TOPS PERSIST OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH AND FAIR TO NORTH. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST UNDER DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHEAST STEERING BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE PATTERN WITH B SHADE PLUS 0.5 FOR BANDING YIELDING A DT=5.5, MET=5.5 AND PT=5.5, THUS T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS. CONSENSUS FURTHER INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY TURNS IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 169.9E MOV SW 4KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.0S 169.6E MOV SSW 4KT WITH 95KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.9S 169.3E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC NEAR 22.8S 169.1E MOV S 5KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 010230 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 311800 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 31/1954 UTC 2008 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [945HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.8S 170.5E AT 311800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. COLD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. COLD TOPS PERSIST OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH AND FAIR TO NORTH. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST UNDER DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHEAST STEERING BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE PATTERN WITH B SHADE PLUS 0.5 FOR BANDING YIELDING A DT=5.5, MET=5.5 AND PT=5.5, THUS T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS. CONSENSUS FURTHER INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY TURNS IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 169.9E MOV SW 4KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.0S 169.6E MOV SSW 4KT WITH 95KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.9S 169.3E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC NEAR 22.8S 169.1E MOV S 5KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 010230 UTC. ** WTNC01 NWBB 312017 *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 026. B: AVIS DE CYCLONE REDIGE LE 31/01/2008 A 20:00 UTC. C: A 18:00 UTC LE 31/01/08, CYCLONE TROPICAL "GENE" : - CENTRE PAR 19,8 SUD 170,5 EST. POSITION BONNE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 945 HPA. D: - DEPLACEMENT OUEST-SUD-OUEST 05 NOEUDS. VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 85 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 130 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 20 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER ENORME. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 63 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 95 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 35 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER ENORME. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 70 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 35 ET 55 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 55 ET 160 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL "GENE" S'EST RENFORCE DURANT LA NUIT EN RALENTISSANT F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 01/02/08 A 0000 UTC : 20,2 SUD 170,2 EST. LE 01/02/08 A 0600 UTC : 20,6 SUD 170,0 EST. LE 01/02/08 A 1200 UTC : 21,0 SUD 169,8 EST. LE 01/02/08 A 1800 UTC : 21,4 SUD 169,7 EST. LE 02/02/08 A 0000 UTC : 21,8 SUD 169,7 EST. LE 02/02/08 A 0600 UTC : 22,2 SUD 169,7 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 01/02/08 A 02:00 UTC.= ** WTNC01 NWBB 312017 *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 026. B: AVIS DE CYCLONE REDIGE LE 31/01/2008 A 20:00 UTC. C: A 18:00 UTC LE 31/01/08, CYCLONE TROPICAL "GENE" : - CENTRE PAR 19,8 SUD 170,5 EST. POSITION BONNE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 945 HPA. D: - DEPLACEMENT OUEST-SUD-OUEST 05 NOEUDS. VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 85 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 130 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 20 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER ENORME. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 63 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 95 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 35 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER ENORME. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 70 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 35 ET 55 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 55 ET 160 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL "GENE" S'EST RENFORCE DURANT LA NUIT EN RALENTISSANT F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 01/02/08 A 0000 UTC : 20,2 SUD 170,2 EST. LE 01/02/08 A 0600 UTC : 20,6 SUD 170,0 EST. LE 01/02/08 A 1200 UTC : 21,0 SUD 169,8 EST. LE 01/02/08 A 1800 UTC : 21,4 SUD 169,7 EST. LE 02/02/08 A 0000 UTC : 21,8 SUD 169,7 EST. LE 02/02/08 A 0600 UTC : 22,2 SUD 169,7 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 01/02/08 A 02:00 UTC.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 312100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 52.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 52.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.4S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.5S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.5S 56.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 52.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING IS BEING ISSUED EARLY BECAUSE THE TRACK FORECASTING PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TC 13S HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS A RESULT OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TC 14S AND CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 13S DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ULTIMATELY, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND CAUSE TC 13S TO TRACK EASTWARD. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE BOTH SYSTEMS AND STEER TC 13S SOUTHEASTWARD. OVERALL, THE DIRECT INTERACTION OF THE TWO CYCLONES IS CREATING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERT- AINTY IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONES AND THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS. OF THOSE OBJECTIVE AIDS, NOGAPS AND GFDN APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE SCENARIO BEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTXS31 PGTW 312100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 52.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 52.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.4S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.5S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.5S 56.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 52.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING IS BEING ISSUED EARLY BECAUSE THE TRACK FORECASTING PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TC 13S HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS A RESULT OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TC 14S AND CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 13S DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ULTIMATELY, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND CAUSE TC 13S TO TRACK EASTWARD. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE BOTH SYSTEMS AND STEER TC 13S SOUTHEASTWARD. OVERALL, THE DIRECT INTERACTION OF THE TWO CYCLONES IS CREATING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERT- AINTY IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONES AND THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS. OF THOSE OBJECTIVE AIDS, NOGAPS AND GFDN APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE SCENARIO BEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPS31 PGTW 312100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 170.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 170.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 20.4S 170.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 21.1S 169.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 21.9S 169.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 22.9S 169.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 170.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS, WRAPPING INTO A BANDING EYE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A MATURE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON 100 TO 105 KNOT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND NFFN. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT UNTIL TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 15P WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING OF THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL, THE AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z. //