** WTIO22 FMEE 240607 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 965 HPA POSITION: 12.7S / 48.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 18 UTC: 14.2S / 46.7E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/25 AT 06 UTC: 15.6S / 45.4E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION GOES ON DESPITE IT IS VERY CLOSED TO MALAGASY COASTLINE. BONDO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD TRACK NEAR MALAGASY COASTS, THEN MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MAJENGA.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 240607 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 027/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 24/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (BONDO) 965 HPA POSITION: 12.7S / 48.0E (DOUZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-OUEST. OURAGAN 65/75 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 35 MN DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 70 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 100 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 14.2S / 46.7E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 25/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 15.6S / 45.4E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME SE POURSUIT MALGRE LA PROXIMITE DES COTES MALGACHES. BONDO EST PREVU CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER DANS UNE DIRECTION GLOBALE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. PROFITANT DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES, IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, TOUT EN RESTANT DE PETITE TAILLE. IL DEVRAIT LONGER LA COTE MALGACHE, ET ATTERRIR AU VOISINAGE DE MAJENGA. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 240607 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 965 HPA POSITION: 12.7S / 48.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 18 UTC: 14.2S / 46.7E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/25 AT 06 UTC: 15.6S / 45.4E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION GOES ON DESPITE IT IS VERY CLOSED TO MALAGASY COASTLINE. BONDO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD TRACK NEAR MALAGASY COASTS, THEN MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MAJENGA. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 240631 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/24 AT 0600 UTC : 12.7S / 48.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 14.2S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 15.6S/45.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 17.2S/44.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 18.8S/43.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 20.7S/42.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/27 06 UTC: 23.0S/42.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.5+ THE SYSTEME HAS ACCELRATED SOUTHWESTWARDS, OVER A REGULAR TRACK, AND INTENSIFIED LIGHTLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MALAGASY COASTLINE. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE CHANNEL, BONDO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LIGHTLY, BUT NOT MUCH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH THE EXTENTION OF WINDS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 240631 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/24 AT 0600 UTC : 12.7S / 48.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 14.2S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 15.6S/45.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 17.2S/44.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 18.8S/43.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 20.7S/42.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/27 06 UTC: 23.0S/42.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.5+ THE SYSTEME HAS ACCELRATED SOUTHWESTWARDS, OVER A REGULAR TRACK, AND INTENSIFIED LIGHTLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MALAGASY COASTLINE. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE CHANNEL, BONDO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LIGHTLY, BUT NOT MUCH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH THE EXTENTION OF WINDS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 240635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24 DEC, 2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF BAY OF BENGAL , SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14.0 DEG.N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER