** WTIO21 FMEE 240015 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 026/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 24/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (BONDO) 970 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3S / 48.6E (DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE-HUIT DEGRES SIX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-OUEST. OURAGAN 65/70 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 70 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 100 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 13.3S / 47.7E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 25/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 14.3S / 46.7E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME SE POURSUIT MALGRE LA PROXIMITE DES COTES MALGACHES. BONDO EST PREVU CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER DANS UNE DIRECTION GLOBALE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. PROFITANT DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES, IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. L'INTENSITE DEPENDRA FORTEMENT DE LA PROXIMITE DES COTES MALGACHES OU D'UN ATTERRISSAGE PRECOCE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 240015 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 026/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 970 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 48.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 47.7E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/25 AT 00 UTC: 14.3S / 46.7E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION GOES ON DESPITE IT IS VERY CLOSED TO MALAGASY COASTLINE. BONDO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTENSITY DEPENDS ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE MALAGASY COASTLINE OR ON AN EARLY LANDFALL. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 240015 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 026/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 970 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 48.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 47.7E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/25 AT 00 UTC: 14.3S / 46.7E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION GOES ON DESPITE IT IS VERY CLOSED TO MALAGASY COASTLINE. BONDO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTENSITY DEPENDS ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE MALAGASY COASTLINE OR ON AN EARLY LANDFALL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 240033 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 48.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 170 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.3S/47.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 15.2S/45.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 16.7S/44.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 18.5S/42.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 20.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.5 SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION GOES ON DESPITE IT IS VERY CLOSED TO MALAGASY COASTLINE. SINCE 2300UTC INDOEX INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BONDO WITH A MORE REGULAR CONFIGURATION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MALAGASY COASTLINE. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE CHANNEL, BONDO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. THIS SCENARIO MAKES PEOPLE OF THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE EXPOSED BUT AN UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. INDEED, PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE COULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND IN THIS WAY ITS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 240033 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 48.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 170 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.3S/47.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 15.2S/45.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 16.7S/44.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 18.5S/42.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 20.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.5 SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION GOES ON DESPITE IT IS VERY CLOSED TO MALAGASY COASTLINE. SINCE 2300UTC INDOEX INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BONDO WITH A MORE REGULAR CONFIGURATION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MALAGASY COASTLINE. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE CHANNEL, BONDO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. THIS SCENARIO MAKES PEOPLE OF THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE EXPOSED BUT AN UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. INDEED, PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE COULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND IN THIS WAY ITS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 12.2S 48.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 48.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 13.0S 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 13.7S 47.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 14.4S 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 15.1S 46.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 48.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WITHIN THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK DIRECTION, BUT DIFFER IN THE SPEED OF FORWARD MOVEMENT. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT IS DUE TO THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE LOBE OF THE STR TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BUILDS WESTWARD AND THUS THE INFLUENCE IT HAS IN STEERING THE TC. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE EMPHASIS TOWARDS THOSE DEPICTING A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 05S WILL WEAKEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DISRUPTION OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW BY THE TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.// BT #0001