** WTIO21 FMEE 231817 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/12/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 025/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 23/12/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONDO) 975 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.8S / 48.7E (ONZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE-HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 230 MN DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 280 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 12.4S / 48.0E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 24/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 13.3S / 47.2E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'INTENSIFICATION SE POURSUIT AVEC LA FORMATION D'UN OEIL, BONDO DEVRAIT ETRE RECLASSE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES TOUTES PROCHAINES HEURES. LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT DANS UNE DIRECTION GLOBALE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST MAIS EST PREVU INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST LE LONG DES COTES MALGACHES. PROFITANT DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES, IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER S'IL N'ATTERIT PAS SUR LES COTES DU NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR OU S'IL NE S'EN RAPPROCHE PAS TROP. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 231817 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 025/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 975 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 48.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 06 UTC: 12.4S / 48.0E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 18 UTC: 13.3S / 47.2E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE , BONDO COULD BE UPGRADED BACK TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BONDO TRACKS GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IF IT DOESN'T MAKE LANFALL OR IF IS NOT TO CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 231817 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 025/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 975 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 48.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 06 UTC: 12.4S / 48.0E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 18 UTC: 13.3S / 47.2E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE , BONDO COULD BE UPGRADED BACK TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BONDO TRACKS GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IF IT DOESN'T MAKE LANFALL OR IF IS NOT TO CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 231846 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 48.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 12.4S/48.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 13.3S/47.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 14.1S/46.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 15.0S/45.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 15.9S/44.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 16.6S/43.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ SYSTEM RE-ORGANIZATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING BANDING EYE IN A CURVED BAND PATTERN OF 12 TENS. BONDO COULD BE UPGRADED BACK TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING VERY SLOWLY AND GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE CHANNEL, BONDO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. THIS SCENARIO MAKES PEOPLE OF THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE EXPOSED BUT AN UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. INDEED, PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE COULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND IN THIS WAY ITS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 231846 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 48.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 12.4S/48.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 13.3S/47.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 14.1S/46.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 15.0S/45.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 15.9S/44.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 16.6S/43.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ SYSTEM RE-ORGANIZATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING BANDING EYE IN A CURVED BAND PATTERN OF 12 TENS. BONDO COULD BE UPGRADED BACK TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING VERY SLOWLY AND GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE CHANNEL, BONDO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. THIS SCENARIO MAKES PEOPLE OF THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE EXPOSED BUT AN UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. INDEED, PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE COULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND IN THIS WAY ITS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. .