** WTIO22 FMEE 231208 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 024/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 976 HPA POSITION: 11.7S / 49.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 260 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TP 400 NM IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. HURRICAN WINDS FORCE 60 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 00 UTC: 12.6S / 48.6E, MAX WIND = 70 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 12 UTC: 13.6S / 47.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE DATA, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION IS WIDER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (QUIKSCAT 0447Z). INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE IN THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BONDO TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 231208 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 1200 UTC : 11.7S / 49.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 12.6S/48.6E, MAX WIND=070KT. 24H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.6S/47.8E, MAX WIND=080KT. 36H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 16.4S/45.2E OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 17.8S/43.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 19.7S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE ON THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLES FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTSARDS ALONG COASTS OF MADAGASCAR , THEN ACCELERATE UNDER THE STEERING EFFECT OF BOTH THE RIDGE WEST TOMALAGASHY AND THE TROUGH ON THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANEL. .= ** WTIO22 FMEE 231208 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 024/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 976 HPA POSITION: 11.7S / 49.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 260 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TP 400 NM IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. HURRICAN WINDS FORCE 60 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 00 UTC: 12.6S / 48.6E, MAX WIND = 70 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 12 UTC: 13.6S / 47.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE DATA, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION IS WIDER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (QUIKSCAT 0447Z). INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE IN THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BONDO TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 231208 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 024/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 23/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONDO) 976 HPA POSITION: 11.7S / 49.1E (ONZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-NEUF DEGRES UN EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 260 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST, ET JUSQU'A 400 MN DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST. OURAGAN 60 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 280 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 12.6S / 48.6E, VENT MAX = 70 KT. A 24H POUR LE 24/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 13.6S / 47.8E, VENT MAX = 80 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'EXTENSION DU GRAND FRAIS, PLUS IMPORTANTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST EST VALIDEE PAR DES DONNEES SATELLITAIRES RECENTES (QUIKSCAT 0447Z). L'INTENSIFICATION SE POURSUIT AVEC LA FORMATION D'UN OEIL DANS LES TOUTTES DERNIERES IMAGES. LE SYSTEME SEMBLE REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST .. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 231208 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 1200 UTC : 11.7S / 49.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 12.6S/48.6E, MAX WIND=070KT. 24H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.6S/47.8E, MAX WIND=080KT. 36H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 16.4S/45.2E OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 17.8S/43.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 19.7S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE ON THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLES FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTSARDS ALONG COASTS OF MADAGASCAR , THEN ACCELERATE UNDER THE STEERING EFFECT OF BOTH THE RIDGE WEST TOMALAGASHY AND THE TROUGH ON THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANEL. .. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 231418 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 024/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 976 HPA POSITION: 11.7S / 49.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 260 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TP 400 NM IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. HURRICAN WINDS FORCE 60 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 00 UTC: 12.6S / 48.6E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 12 UTC: 13.6S / 47.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE DATA, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION IS WIDER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (QUIKSCAT 0447Z). INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE IN THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BONDO TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 231418 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 024/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 976 HPA POSITION: 11.7S / 49.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 260 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TP 400 NM IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. HURRICAN WINDS FORCE 60 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 00 UTC: 12.6S / 48.6E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 12 UTC: 13.6S / 47.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE DATA, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION IS WIDER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (QUIKSCAT 0447Z). INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE IN THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BONDO TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 231418 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 024/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 23/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONDO) 976 HPA POSITION: 11.7S / 49.1E (ONZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-NEUF DEGRES UN EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 260 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST, ET JUSQU'A 400 MN DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST. OURAGAN 60 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 280 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 12.6S / 48.6E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 24/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 13.6S / 47.8E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'EXTENSION DU GRAND FRAIS, PLUS IMPORTANTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST EST VALIDEE PAR DES DONNEES SATELLITAIRES RECENTES (QUIKSCAT 0447Z). L'INTENSIFICATION SE POURSUIT AVEC LA FORMATION D'UN OEIL DANS LES TOUTTES DERNIERES IMAGES. LE SYSTEME SEMBLE REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST .. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 231419 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 1200 UTC : 11.7S / 49.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 12.6S/48.6E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.6S/47.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 16.4S/45.2E OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 17.8S/43.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 19.7S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE ON THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLES FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTSARDS ALONG COASTS OF MADAGASCAR , THEN ACCELERATE UNDER THE STEERING EFFECT OF BOTH THE RIDGE WEST TOMALAGASHY AND THE TROUGH ON THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANEL. .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 231419 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 1200 UTC : 11.7S / 49.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 12.6S/48.6E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.6S/47.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 16.4S/45.2E OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 17.8S/43.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 19.7S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE ON THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLES FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTSARDS ALONG COASTS OF MADAGASCAR , THEN ACCELERATE UNDER THE STEERING EFFECT OF BOTH THE RIDGE WEST TOMALAGASHY AND THE TROUGH ON THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANEL. .. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 231500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 49.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 49.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 12.5S 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 13.3S 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 14.3S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 15.3S 45.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 49.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. BY TAU 36, THE WEAKNESS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO A NEW POSITION OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. TC 05S WILL WEAKEN AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO- LOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DISRUPTION OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW BY THE TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 31200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//