** WTIO22 FMEE 230014 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 983 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 50.3E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THENORTEASTERN QUADRANT AND TO 110 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 12 UTC: 10.9S / 50.0E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 00 UTC: 11.2S / 49.3E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE DATA, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION IS WIDER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE -UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTRE - THAN IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (40 NM). BONDO HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 230014 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 022/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 23/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONDO) 983 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8S / 50.3E (DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 2 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-OUEST. TEMPETE 50 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 110 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET JUSQUE 80 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.9S / 50.0E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 24/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 11.2S / 49.3E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'EXTENSION DU GRAND FRAIS, PLUS IMPORTANTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST - JUSQU'A 100 MN DU CENTRE (40 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST) - EST VALIDEE PAR DES DONNEES SATELLITAIRES RECENTES. LE SYSTEME EST DEMEURE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE AU COURS DES 12 DENIERES HEURES ET DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 230014 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 983 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 50.3E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THENORTEASTERN QUADRANT AND TO 110 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 12 UTC: 10.9S / 50.0E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/24 AT 00 UTC: 11.2S / 49.3E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE DATA, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION IS WIDER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE -UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTRE - THAN IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (40 NM). BONDO HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230014 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 50.3E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 080 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 10.9S/50.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 11.2S/49.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 12.1S/48.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 12.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 13.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 15.0S/46.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5+ CNVECTION MAINTAINS DESPITE FLUCTUATING PATTERN. ARC OF CIRRUS IN THE SOUTH-EAST SHOWS EXISTENCE OF WINDSHEAR - WEAK TO MODERATE. BONDO HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS AND SHOULD NOW TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY CYCLES OF WEAKENING AND DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, BONDO COULD FIND A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT - WEAK WINDSHEAR AND WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SSTS. REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT MADE A LANDFALL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230014 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 50.3E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 080 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 10.9S/50.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 11.2S/49.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 12.1S/48.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 12.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 13.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 15.0S/46.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5+ CNVECTION MAINTAINS DESPITE FLUCTUATING PATTERN. ARC OF CIRRUS IN THE SOUTH-EAST SHOWS EXISTENCE OF WINDSHEAR - WEAK TO MODERATE. BONDO HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS AND SHOULD NOW TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY CYCLES OF WEAKENING AND DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, BONDO COULD FIND A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT - WEAK WINDSHEAR AND WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SSTS. REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT MADE A LANDFALL. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 230300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 49.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 49.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 11.2S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 11.6S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 12.3S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 13.0S 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 49.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS TC 05S IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH COMPETING INFLUENCES FROM A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO RELOCATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN ANTI-CYCLONE RE-ESTABLISHING OVER TC 05S IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT INTENSITY. AS TC 05S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, A SLIGHT INTEN- SITY INCREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 12. BEYOND TAU 12 THE TOPO- GRAPHIC INFLUENCE OF MADAGASCAR ON THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48. THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE HIGHLY CYCLIC NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AS WELL AS THE POSSI- BILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, FURTHER FROM LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.// BT #0001