** WTIO22 FMEE 221817 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 980 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 50.2E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THENORTEASTERN QUADRANT AND TO 110 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 06 UTC: 10.6S / 50.4E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 18 UTC: 10.7S / 50.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE DATA, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION IS WIDER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE -UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTRE - THAN IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (40 NM). ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEME BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. IT HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. IT SHOULD STAY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, BEFORE KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 221817 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 22/12/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 021/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 22/12/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONDO) 980 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.5S / 50.2E (DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES DEUX EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 2 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 250MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-OUEST. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 110 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET JUSQUE 80 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 10.6S / 50.4E, VENT MAX = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 23/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 10.7S / 50.1E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'EXTENSION DU GRAND FRAIS, PLUS IMPORTANTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST - JUSQU'A 100 MN DU CENTRE (40 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST) - EST VALIDEE PAR DES DONNEES SATELLITAIRES RECENTES. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ETANT MOINS DEFAVORABLES, LE SYSTEME SE REORGANISE PREOGRESSIVEMENT. IL EST DEMEURE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE AU COURS DES 6 DENIERES HEURES ET DEVRAIT LE RESTER ENCORE QUELQUES 24 HEURES, AVANT DE POURSUIVRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 221817 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 980 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 50.2E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THENORTEASTERN QUADRANT AND TO 110 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 06 UTC: 10.6S / 50.4E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 18 UTC: 10.7S / 50.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE DATA, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION IS WIDER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE -UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTRE - THAN IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (40 NM). ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEME BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. IT HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. IT SHOULD STAY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, BEFORE KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 221845 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/22 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 50.2E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 080 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 10.6S/50.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 10.7S/50.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 10.9S/49.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 11.3S/49.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 11.9S/48.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 12.5S/47.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ AND CI=4.0- THANKS TO WEAKER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM ORAGNIZES AND CONVECTION HAS REBUILT AND MAINTAINED ABOVE THE CENTRE SINCE 0800Z. BONDO HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY FOR 6 HOURS AND SHOULD STAY QUASISTAIONARY FOR 24 HOURS, BEFORE KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS. IT SEEM THE STEERING FLOW AT MID-LEVEL IS TEMPORARILY THE STRONG WESTERLY EQUARTOWARD FLOW. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE STEERING FLOW WOULD BE THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH P RESSURES IN THE SOUTH. FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY CYCLES OF WEAKENING AND DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, BONDO COULD FIND A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT - WEAK WINDSHEAR AND WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SSTS. REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT MADE A LANDFALL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 221845 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/22 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 50.2E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 080 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 10.6S/50.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 10.7S/50.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 10.9S/49.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 11.3S/49.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 11.9S/48.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 12.5S/47.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ AND CI=4.0- THANKS TO WEAKER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM ORAGNIZES AND CONVECTION HAS REBUILT AND MAINTAINED ABOVE THE CENTRE SINCE 0800Z. BONDO HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY FOR 6 HOURS AND SHOULD STAY QUASISTAIONARY FOR 24 HOURS, BEFORE KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS. IT SEEM THE STEERING FLOW AT MID-LEVEL IS TEMPORARILY THE STRONG WESTERLY EQUARTOWARD FLOW. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE STEERING FLOW WOULD BE THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH P RESSURES IN THE SOUTH. FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY CYCLES OF WEAKENING AND DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, BONDO COULD FIND A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT - WEAK WINDSHEAR AND WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SSTS. REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT MADE A LANDFALL. .