** WTIO22 FMEE 221218 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 980 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 49.7E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST ) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO MORE THAN 250 NM IN THE PERIPHERIC BANDS. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 00 UTC: 11.1S / 49.2E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 12 UTC: 11.9S / 48.6E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: UNDERGOING MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, BONDO MAKES A BREAK IN ITS WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN COULD RE-INTENSIFY BEYOND.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 221218 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 22/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 020/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 22/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONDO) 980 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.5S / 49.7E (DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 3 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE , POUVANT S'ETENDRE LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A PLUS DE 250MN DANS LES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 80 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQUE 110 MN DANS LE QUANDRANT NORD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 11.1S / 49.2E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 23/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 11.9S / 48.6E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: A LA FAVEUR DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES S'AMELIORANT POUR LUI, LE SYSTEME BONDO A CESSE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LE SYSTEME A BEAUCOUP RALENTI. IL EST PREVU LONGER LES COTES NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT DE NOUVEAU PROGRESSIVEMENT DURANT LES PROCHAINES 36H PUIS POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU SE RE-INTENSIFIER ULTERIEUREMENT. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 221218 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 980 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 49.7E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST ) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO MORE THAN 250 NM IN THE PERIPHERIC BANDS. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 00 UTC: 11.1S / 49.2E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 12 UTC: 11.9S / 48.6E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: UNDERGOING MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, BONDO MAKES A BREAK IN ITS WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN COULD RE-INTENSIFY BEYOND. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 221227 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 49.7E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 11.9S/48.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 12.5S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.2S/47.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.0S/46.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 14.6S/45.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.0- THE VERTICAL ENVIRONMENT IS LESS AND LESS WINDSHEARED (ACCORDING TO CIMMS DATA) AND SINCE 0800UTC DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BACK OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, SO BONDO MAKES A BREAK IN ITS WEAKENING. IT SHOWS NOW IN THE VISBLE INDOEX CHANNEL A CURVED BAND PATTERN ABOUT 10 TENS. THE CIRRUS EASTWARDS OUTFLOW CONFIRMS THAT THE WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING AND THE GOOD ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM HAS SLOWN DOWN AND SEEMS TO BEGIN CURVING SOUTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING IN THIS DIRECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO BE STRONGER DURING LAST NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM COULD DURING THE 23 AND THE 24 OF DECEMBER, UNDERGOI SOME CYCLES OF TEMPORARILY WEAKENING AND DEEPENING. NEVERTHELESS, DURING THE 25 OF DECEMBER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE BACK IN A LESS WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM STILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 221227 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 49.7E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 11.9S/48.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 12.5S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.2S/47.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.0S/46.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 14.6S/45.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.0- THE VERTICAL ENVIRONMENT IS LESS AND LESS WINDSHEARED (ACCORDING TO CIMMS DATA) AND SINCE 0800UTC DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BACK OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, SO BONDO MAKES A BREAK IN ITS WEAKENING. IT SHOWS NOW IN THE VISBLE INDOEX CHANNEL A CURVED BAND PATTERN ABOUT 10 TENS. THE CIRRUS EASTWARDS OUTFLOW CONFIRMS THAT THE WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING AND THE GOOD ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM HAS SLOWN DOWN AND SEEMS TO BEGIN CURVING SOUTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING IN THIS DIRECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO BE STRONGER DURING LAST NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM COULD DURING THE 23 AND THE 24 OF DECEMBER, UNDERGOI SOME CYCLES OF TEMPORARILY WEAKENING AND DEEPENING. NEVERTHELESS, DURING THE 25 OF DECEMBER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE BACK IN A LESS WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM STILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 10.4S 49.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 49.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 11.0S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 11.8S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 12.8S 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.0S 47.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 49.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAG- ERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH SPIRAL CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DETAILED UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW THAT AN ANTICYCLONE HAS RE-FORMED OVER THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN IM- PROVED OVERALL OUTFLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND IS NOW LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE 22/00Z UPPER LEVEL ANAL- YSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD-ORIENTED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BUT WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36 AS THE NEXT MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAG- ASCAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND AFTER TAU 24 SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE HIGHLY CYCLIC NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, FURTHER FROM LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.//