** WTIO22 FMEE 220027 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 970 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 50.3E (TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO MORE THAN 250 NM IN THE PERIPHERIC BANDS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 12 UTC: 10.9S / 49.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 00 UTC: 11.7S / 48.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED, SOUTHEAST OF MAIN DEEP THUNDERY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWN DOWN AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING, AS IT TRACKS MORE TOWARDS NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 220027 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 970 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 50.3E (TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO MORE THAN 250 NM IN THE PERIPHERIC BANDS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 12 UTC: 10.9S / 49.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/23 AT 00 UTC: 11.7S / 48.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED, SOUTHEAST OF MAIN DEEP THUNDERY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWN DOWN AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING, AS IT TRACKS MORE TOWARDS NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 220027 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 22/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 018/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 22/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (BONDO) 970 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.2S / 50.3E (DIX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE PRINCIPALEMENT DANS SECTEUR NORD-OUEST, POUVANT S'ETENDRE LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A PLUS DE 250MN DANS LES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES. OURAGAN 65 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 22/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.9S / 49.6E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 23/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 11.7S / 48.9E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CENTRE DE BASSE COUCHE EST EXPOSE AU SUD-EST DE LA MASSE ACTIVE ORAGEUSE. LE SYSTEME A RALENTI ET FAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT EN SE RAPROCHANT PLUS DU NORD DE MADASCAR. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 220053 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/22 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 50.3E (TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.7S/48.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 12.6S/48.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 13.6S/47.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 14.6S/47.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 15.5S/46.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.5- THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING IN A STRONGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS EXPOSED SOUTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION (SEE TRMM AT 1836Z AND AMSUB AT 1912Z). IT HAS SLOWN DOWN AND CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEGINNING TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT COME CLOSER TO THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. NEVERTHELESS, IN A LESS WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM STILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 220053 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/22 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 50.3E (TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.7S/48.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 12.6S/48.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 13.6S/47.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 14.6S/47.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 15.5S/46.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.5- THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING IN A STRONGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS EXPOSED SOUTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION (SEE TRMM AT 1836Z AND AMSUB AT 1912Z). IT HAS SLOWN DOWN AND CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEGINNING TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT COME CLOSER TO THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. NEVERTHELESS, IN A LESS WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM STILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 10.3S 50.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 50.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 11.0S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 11.7S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 12.7S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 13.7S 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 50.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM ENCOUNTERED A REGION OF HIGHER THAN EXPECTED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS TO REFLECT A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH LAND. IN FACT, MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THAT TC 05S HAS STARTED TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD MADAGASCAR IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH). THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 220300 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 10.3S 50.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 50.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 11.0S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 11.7S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 12.7S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 13.7S 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 50.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM ENCOUNTERED A REGION OF HIGHER THAN EXPECTED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS TO REFLECT A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH LAND. IN FACT, MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THAT TC 05S HAS STARTED TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD MADAGASCAR IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH). THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WIND RADII AT TAU 12.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 220503 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 11.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ??????????