** WTIO22 FMEE 211220 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 00 UTC: 9.7S / 49.6E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 12 UTC: 10.7S / 48.5E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 211220 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 21/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 016/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 21/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (BONDO) 945 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/90 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 25 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 45 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 70 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 22/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 9.7S / 49.6E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 22/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.7S / 48.5E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "BONDO" A RALENTI DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES, SA TRAJECTOIRE SE STABILISE DANS LA DIRECTION DE L'OUEST ET DEVRAIT S'INFLECHIR PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES. CE SYSTEME EST DE PETITE TAILLE ET L'EXTENSION DES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SON T CONCENTRES PRES DU CENTRE. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 211220 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 21/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 016/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 21/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (BONDO) 945 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/90 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 25 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 45 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 70 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 22/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 9.7S / 49.6E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 22/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.7S / 48.5E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "BONDO" A RALENTI DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES, SA TRAJECTOIRE SE STABILISE DANS LA DIRECTION DE L'OUEST ET DEVRAIT S'INFLECHIR PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES. CE SYSTEME EST DE PETITE TAILLE ET L'EXTENSION DES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SON T CONCENTRES PRES DU CENTRE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 211220 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 00 UTC: 9.7S / 49.6E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 12 UTC: 10.7S / 48.5E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 211221 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 09.7S/49.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.7S/48.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.7S/47.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 12.8S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 13.9S/45.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 15.1S/45.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 ; CI=5.5- AFTER AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE YESTERDAY, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" DOES NOT SEEM CLEARLY ORGANIZED : THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE CENTER (CF. AMSU 0639Z AND 0953Z) AND THE EYE STRUCTURE FLUCTUATES. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAVOURABLE BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSE TO A REGION OF MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS SLOWED DOWN FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, TRACKING WESTWARDS AT 6/7 KT ; IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 211221 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 09.7S/49.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.7S/48.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.7S/47.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 12.8S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 13.9S/45.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 15.1S/45.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 ; CI=5.5- AFTER AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE YESTERDAY, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" DOES NOT SEEM CLEARLY ORGANIZED : THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE CENTER (CF. AMSU 0639Z AND 0953Z) AND THE EYE STRUCTURE FLUCTUATES. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAVOURABLE BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSE TO A REGION OF MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS SLOWED DOWN FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, TRACKING WESTWARDS AT 6/7 KT ; IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 211229 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 00 UTC: 9.7S / 49.6E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 12 UTC: 10.7S / 48.5E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 211229 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 00 UTC: 9.7S / 49.6E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 12 UTC: 10.7S / 48.5E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 211229 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 09.7S/49.6E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.7S/48.5E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.7S/47.5E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 12.8S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 13.9S/45.9E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 15.1S/45.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 ; CI=5.5- AFTER AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE YESTERDAY, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" DOES NOT SEEM CLEARLY ORGANIZED : THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE CENTER (CF. AMSU 0639Z AND 0953Z) AND THE EYE STRUCTURE FLUCTUATES. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAVOURABLE BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSE TO A REGION OF MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS SLOWED DOWN FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, TRACKING WESTWARDS AT 6/7 KT ; IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 211229 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 00 UTC: 9.7S / 49.6E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 12 UTC: 10.7S / 48.5E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 211229 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 21/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 016/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 21/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (BONDO) 945 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/90 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 25 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 45 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 70 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 22/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 9.7S / 49.6E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 22/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.7S / 48.5E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "BONDO" A RALENTI DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES, SA TRAJECTOIRE SE STABILISE DANS LA DIRECTION DE L'OUEST ET DEVRAIT S'INFLECHIR PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES. CE SYSTEME EST DE PETITE TAILLE ET L'EXTENSION DES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SON T CONCENTRES PRES DU CENTRE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 211229 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 00 UTC: 9.7S / 49.6E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 12 UTC: 10.7S / 48.5E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 211229 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 09.7S/49.6E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.7S/48.5E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.7S/47.5E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 12.8S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 13.9S/45.9E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 15.1S/45.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 ; CI=5.5- AFTER AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE YESTERDAY, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" DOES NOT SEEM CLEARLY ORGANIZED : THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE CENTER (CF. AMSU 0639Z AND 0953Z) AND THE EYE STRUCTURE FLUCTUATES. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAVOURABLE BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSE TO A REGION OF MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS SLOWED DOWN FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, TRACKING WESTWARDS AT 6/7 KT ; IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 9.4S 50.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S 50.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 9.7S 49.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 10.6S 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 11.6S 48.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 12.4S 47.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 50.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND NOW HAS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING. EARLIER SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EYE (AS LATE AS THE 211008Z AMSR-E IMAGE), HOWEVER, THIS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO MODERATE SOUTH- EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIURNAL CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 05S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE OFF-SETTING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24, REINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 12, TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS (SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR) IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.//