** WTIO22 FMEE 210620 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 935 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 51.5E (NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 18 UTC: 9.7S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 06 UTC: 10.3S / 48.7E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 210621 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 51.5E (NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 09.7S/49.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 10.3S/48.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 11.0S/47.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 12.1S/46.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 13.3S/46.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 14.6S/45.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" ORGANIZES AGAIN, BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT COMPLETELY CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTER (CF. F15 0444Z ). WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS IS A SM ALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS. AT PRESENT TIME, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 210621 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 51.5E (NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 09.7S/49.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 10.3S/48.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 11.0S/47.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 12.1S/46.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 13.3S/46.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 14.6S/45.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" ORGANIZES AGAIN, BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT COMPLETELY CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTER (CF. F15 0444Z ). WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS IS A SM ALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS. AT PRESENT TIME, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 210620 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 21/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 015/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 21/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (BONDO) 935 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.5S / 51.5E (NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE ET UN DEGRES CINQ EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. OURAGAN 65/100 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 25 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 45 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 70 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 21/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 9.7S / 49.7E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 22/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 10.3S / 48.7E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "BONDO" POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DE L'OUEST, IL EST PREVU INFLECHIR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES 12 A 24 PROCHAINES HEURES. CE SYSTEME EST DE PETITE TAILLE ET LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT CONCENTRES PRES DU CENTRE, ESSENTIELLEM ENT DANS LES SECTEURS SUD ET EST. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 210620 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 935 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 51.5E (NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 18 UTC: 9.7S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 06 UTC: 10.3S / 48.7E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 210621 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 51.5E (NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 09.7S/49.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 10.3S/48.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 11.0S/47.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 12.1S/46.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 13.3S/46.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 14.6S/45.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" ORGANIZES AGAIN, BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT COMPLETELY CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTER (CF. F15 0444Z ). WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS IS A SM ALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS. AT PRESENT TIME, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 210641 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS- RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL(.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 11.0 DEG N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.)