** WTIO22 FMEE 210010 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 940 HPA POSITION: 9.7S / 52.2E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 12 UTC: 9.4S / 50.6E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 00 UTC: 10.0S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BONDO KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTNORTHWESTWARDS BUT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SMALL SIZE WITH STRONGEST WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND SOUTHWARDS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 210010 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 940 HPA POSITION: 9.7S / 52.2E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 12 UTC: 9.4S / 50.6E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/22 AT 00 UTC: 10.0S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BONDO KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTNORTHWESTWARDS BUT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SMALL SIZE WITH STRONGEST WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND SOUTHWARDS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 210027 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 0000 UTC : 9.7S / 52.2E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 09.4S/50.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 10.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.9S/48.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 12.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 13.2S/47.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 14.3S/46.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS BECOMED COMPACT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.BONDO SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 12 HOURS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND. AFTER CURVING, AT MEDIUM RANGE, TRACKS SPREAD OVER A SECTOR FROM MAYOTTE TO VOHEMAR. THE FINAL FORECAST REMAINS A CONSENSUS OF THOSE SCENARII.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 210027 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 0000 UTC : 9.7S / 52.2E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 09.4S/50.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 10.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.9S/48.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 12.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 13.2S/47.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 14.3S/46.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS BECOMED COMPACT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.BONDO SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 12 HOURS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND. AFTER CURVING, AT MEDIUM RANGE, TRACKS SPREAD OVER A SECTOR FROM MAYOTTE TO VOHEMAR. THE FINAL FORECAST REMAINS A CONSENSUS OF THOSE SCENARII. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 9.7S 52.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 52.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 9.4S 50.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 9.5S 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 10.1S 47.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 11.0S 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 51.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S HAS WEAKENED DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE ENCOUNTERING HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STORM WILL REMAIN IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. REINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND ESTABLISHES RADIAL OUTFLOW UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 05S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE (OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL) RETREATS WEST- WARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.//