** WTIO22 FMEE 201816 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 940 HPA POSITION: 10.0S / 53.1E (TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 06 UTC: 9.7S / 51.2E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 18 UTC: 10.2S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "BONDO" SHOWS A LIGHT WEAKENING. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS AND SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A VERY SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND SOUTHWARDS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 201816 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 940 HPA POSITION: 10.0S / 53.1E (TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 06 UTC: 9.7S / 51.2E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 18 UTC: 10.2S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "BONDO" SHOWS A LIGHT WEAKENING. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS AND SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A VERY SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND SOUTHWARDS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 201816 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 20/12/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 013/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 20/12/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (BONDO) 940 HPA POSITION: 10.0S / 53.1E (DIX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES UN EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 75 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET 200 MN DANS LE DEMI -CERCLE SUD. OURAGAN 65/90 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 25 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 45 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 70 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 21/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 9.7S / 51.2E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 21/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 10.2S / 49.7E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE "BONDO" MARQUE UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT. IL CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST PUIS DEVRAIT BIFURQUER VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LE SYSTEME EST DE TRES PETITE TAILLE ET LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT TRES CONCENTRES PRES DU CENTRE ET VERS LE SUD. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 201816 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 940 HPA POSITION: 10.0S / 53.1E (TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 06 UTC: 9.7S / 51.2E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 18 UTC: 10.2S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "BONDO" SHOWS A LIGHT WEAKENING. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS AND SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A VERY SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND SOUTHWARDS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 201842 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 1800 UTC : 10.0S / 53.1E (TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 09.7S/51.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 10.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 10.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 11.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 12.8S/47.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 13.8S/46.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DURING THE CYCLE EYE, THAT SEEMS TO BE ENDED (F16 20/1654Z). THE EYE REMAINS OBVIOUS ON THE MW IMAGERY (F16 20/1654Z). BONDO SHOWS AN ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE EYEWALL, BUT THE EXTENTION OF NEAR GALE FORCE AND STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ENLARGED, REMAINING LIMITED FOR THIS SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO TRACK THE SYSTEM GLOBALLY WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND. SOME OF THEM TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE FINAL FORECAST REMAINS A CONSENSUS OF THOSE TWO SCENARII.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 201842 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 1800 UTC : 10.0S / 53.1E (TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 09.7S/51.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 10.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 10.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 11.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 12.8S/47.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 13.8S/46.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DURING THE CYCLE EYE, THAT SEEMS TO BE ENDED (F16 20/1654Z). THE EYE REMAINS OBVIOUS ON THE MW IMAGERY (F16 20/1654Z). BONDO SHOWS AN ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE EYEWALL, BUT THE EXTENTION OF NEAR GALE FORCE AND STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ENLARGED, REMAINING LIMITED FOR THIS SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO TRACK THE SYSTEM GLOBALLY WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND. SOME OF THEM TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE FINAL FORECAST REMAINS A CONSENSUS OF THOSE TWO SCENARII. .