** WTIO22 FMEE 201202 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 930 HPA POSITION: 10.3S / 54.0E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 230 NM IN THE CURVED BANDS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 00 UTC: 10.1S / 52.2E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 12 UTC: 10.0S / 50.2E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "BONDO" SHOWS A LIGHT WEAKENING. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER. IT IS A VERY SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER AND SOUTHWARDS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 201202 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 20/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 012/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 20/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (BONDO) 930 HPA POSITION: 10.3S / 54.0E (DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 230 MN DANS LES BANDES INCURVEES. OURAGAN 65/100 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 25 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 45 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 70 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 21/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 10.1S / 52.2E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 21/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.0S / 50.2E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE "BONDO" MARQUE UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT. IL CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. IL DEVRAIT ENSUITE BIFURQUER VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST DE TRES PETITE TAILLE ET LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT TRES CONCENTRES PRES DU CENTRE ET VERS LE SUD. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 201202 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 930 HPA POSITION: 10.3S / 54.0E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 230 NM IN THE CURVED BANDS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 00 UTC: 10.1S / 52.2E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 12 UTC: 10.0S / 50.2E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "BONDO" SHOWS A LIGHT WEAKENING. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER. IT IS A VERY SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER AND SOUTHWARDS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 201235 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 1200 UTC : 10.3S / 54.0E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 MOINS /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.1S/52.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 10.9S/48.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 12.9S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 14.0S/45.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE ACTUAL EYE CYCLE (SEE SSMI AT 0416Z) GENERATES A RAPID WEAKENING OF BONDO, WITH AN EMBEDDED EYE ON LAST IMAGES. THIS WEAKENING COULD BE TEMPORARY, UNTIL THE END OF THE EYE CYCLE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE EYE WALL, BUT THE EXTENTION OF NEAR GALE AND STORM WINDS HAVE ENLARGED, REMAINING LIMITED FOR THIS SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. SOME OF THEM MAKE IT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE FINAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARII.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 201235 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 1200 UTC : 10.3S / 54.0E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 MOINS /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.1S/52.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 10.9S/48.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 12.9S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 14.0S/45.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE ACTUAL EYE CYCLE (SEE SSMI AT 0416Z) GENERATES A RAPID WEAKENING OF BONDO, WITH AN EMBEDDED EYE ON LAST IMAGES. THIS WEAKENING COULD BE TEMPORARY, UNTIL THE END OF THE EYE CYCLE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE EYE WALL, BUT THE EXTENTION OF NEAR GALE AND STORM WINDS HAVE ENLARGED, REMAINING LIMITED FOR THIS SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. SOME OF THEM MAKE IT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE FINAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARII. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 201235 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 1200 UTC : 10.3S / 54.0E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 MOINS /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.1S/52.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 10.9S/48.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 12.9S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 14.0S/45.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE ACTUAL EYE CYCLE (SEE SSMI AT 0416Z) GENERATES A RAPID WEAKENING OF BONDO, WITH AN EMBEDDED EYE ON LAST IMAGES. THIS WEAKENING COULD BE TEMPORARY, UNTIL THE END OF THE EYE CYCLE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE EYE WALL, BUT THE EXTENTION OF NEAR GALE AND STORM WINDS HAVE ENLARGED, REMAINING LIMITED FOR THIS SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. SOME OF THEM MAKE IT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE FINAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARII.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 201500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 10.2S 54.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 54.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 9.9S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 10.0S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 10.7S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 11.8S 46.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 53.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 05S HAS OSCILLATED EQUATORWARD, BUT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WESTWARD AGAIN BY TAU 12. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROP- ICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING TC 05S. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 05S TO BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A DISRUPTION OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW BEYOND TAU 24 WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC 05S TROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//