** WTIN20 DEMS 200615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS- RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 20-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ,PARTS OF SOUTH BAY, SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 16.0 DEG N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIO22 FMEE 200616 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 920 HPA POSITION: 10.5S / 55.0E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/20 AT 18 UTC: 10.3S / 53.2E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 06 UTC: 10.2S / 51.4E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER. IT IS A VERY SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER AND SOUTHWARDS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 200615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS- RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 20-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ,PARTS OF SOUTH BAY, SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 16.0 DEG N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIO21 FMEE 200616 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 20/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 011/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 20/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (BONDO) 920 HPA POSITION: 10.5S / 55.0E (DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 230 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. OURAGAN 65/110 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 25 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 20/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 10.3S / 53.2E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 21/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 10.2S / 51.4E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE "BONDO" CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. IL DEVRAIT ENSUITE BIFURQUER VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST DE TRES PETITE TAILLE ET LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT TRES CONCENTRES PRES DU CENTRE ET VERS LE SUD. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 200616 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 920 HPA POSITION: 10.5S / 55.0E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/20 AT 18 UTC: 10.3S / 53.2E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 06 UTC: 10.2S / 51.4E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER. IT IS A VERY SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER AND SOUTHWARDS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 200651 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0600 UTC : 10.5S / 55.0E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 10.3S/53.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 10.2S/51.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 11.3S/48.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 12.5S/47.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 13.8S/45.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM AS REMAINED AT THE ITC STAGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM, WITH VERY SMALL EXTENTION OF STRONG WINDS (ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AND AGALEGA DATA) NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. SOME OF THEM MAKE IT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARII.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 200651 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0600 UTC : 10.5S / 55.0E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 10.3S/53.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 10.2S/51.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 11.3S/48.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 12.5S/47.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 13.8S/45.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM AS REMAINED AT THE ITC STAGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM, WITH VERY SMALL EXTENTION OF STRONG WINDS (ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AND AGALEGA DATA) NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. SOME OF THEM MAKE IT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARII. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 200655 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0600 UTC : 10.5S / 55.0E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 10.3S/53.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 10.2S/51.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 11.3S/48.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 12.5S/47.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 13.8S/45.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM AS REMAINED AT THE ITC STAGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM, WITH VERY SMALL EXTENTION OF STRONG WINDS (ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AND AGALEGA DATA) NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. SOME OF THEM MAKE IT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARII.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 200655 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0600 UTC : 10.5S / 55.0E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 10.3S/53.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 10.2S/51.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 11.3S/48.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 12.5S/47.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 13.8S/45.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM AS REMAINED AT THE ITC STAGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM, WITH VERY SMALL EXTENTION OF STRONG WINDS (ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AND AGALEGA DATA) NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. SOME OF THEM MAKE IT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARII. . ** WTPH RPLL 200900 *** GALE WARNING NO. 09 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON ISSUED AT 5:00PM TODAY, 20 DECEMBER 2006 (VALID UNTIL THE NEXT WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT 5:00AM TOMORROW) THE SURGE OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE SEABOARDS OF LUZON AND THE EASTERN SEABOARDS OF VISAYAS. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS. WHILE THE EASTERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON AND VISAYAS WILL HAVE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAINS WINDS OF 40 TO 75KPH (22 TO 40KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2.50 TO 6.00METERS. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEA VESSELS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE BIGGER SEA CRAFTS ARE ALERTED AGAINST HIGH WAVES. WATCH FOR THE NEXT UPDATE TO BE ISSUED AT 5:00AM TOMORROW