** WTIO22 FMEE 200006 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 915 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 56.2E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/20 AT 12 UTC: 10.9S / 54.3E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 00 UTC: 10.8S / 52.3E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 200006 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 20/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 010/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 20/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (BONDO) 915 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8S / 56.2E (DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 230 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. OURAGAN 65/110 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 25 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 20/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.9S / 54.3E, VENT MAX = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 21/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 10.8S / 52.3E, VENT MAX = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE "BONDO" CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER GLOBALLEMENT VERS L'OUEST DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE DURANT LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES. LE SYSTEME EST DE PETITE TAILLE ET LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT TRES CONCENTRES PRES DU CENTRE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 200006 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 915 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 56.2E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/20 AT 12 UTC: 10.9S / 54.3E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2006/12/21 AT 00 UTC: 10.8S / 52.3E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 200044 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 56.2E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.9S/54.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.8S/52.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.9S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/50.2E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BROKES THE DVORAK RULES WITH D3.0/24H. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (2 GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANELS AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE DIRECT). IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER. AT 2230UTC SYSTEM'S EYE WAS ABOUT 45 KM IN THE SOUTH CLOSE TO AGALEGA STATION WHERE 10MN WIND WAS ONLY 25KT WITH A MAXIMUM GUST UP TO 40KT, AT 2200UTC SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN AGALEGA WAS 990.1 HPA. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE BEYOND. A PART OF THEM FORECASTS THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS TO THE NORTHERN MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL AND THE OTHER PART FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 200044 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 56.2E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.9S/54.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.8S/52.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.9S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/50.2E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BROKES THE DVORAK RULES WITH D3.0/24H. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (2 GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANELS AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE DIRECT). IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER. AT 2230UTC SYSTEM'S EYE WAS ABOUT 45 KM IN THE SOUTH CLOSE TO AGALEGA STATION WHERE 10MN WIND WAS ONLY 25KT WITH A MAXIMUM GUST UP TO 40KT, AT 2200UTC SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN AGALEGA WAS 990.1 HPA. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE BEYOND. A PART OF THEM FORECASTS THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS TO THE NORTHERN MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL AND THE OTHER PART FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 200117 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 56.2E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.9S/54.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 24H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.8S/52.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 36H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.9S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 48H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/50.2E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 60H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 72H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BROKES THE DVORAK RULES WITH D3.0/24H. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (2 GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANELS AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE DIRECT). IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER. AT 2230UTC SYSTEM'S EYE WAS ABOUT 45 KM IN THE SOUTH CLOSE TO AGALEGA STATION WHERE 10MN WIND WAS ONLY 25KT WITH A MAXIMUM GUST UP TO 40KT, AT 2200UTC SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN AGALEGA WAS 990.1 HPA. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE BEYOND. A PART OF THEM FORECASTS THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS TO THE NORTHERN MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL AND THE OTHER PART FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 200117 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 56.2E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.9S/54.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 24H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.8S/52.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 36H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.9S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 48H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/50.2E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 60H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 72H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BROKES THE DVORAK RULES WITH D3.0/24H. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (2 GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANELS AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE DIRECT). IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER. AT 2230UTC SYSTEM'S EYE WAS ABOUT 45 KM IN THE SOUTH CLOSE TO AGALEGA STATION WHERE 10MN WIND WAS ONLY 25KT WITH A MAXIMUM GUST UP TO 40KT, AT 2200UTC SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN AGALEGA WAS 990.1 HPA. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE BEYOND. A PART OF THEM FORECASTS THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS TO THE NORTHERN MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL AND THE OTHER PART FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 200117 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 56.2E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.9S/54.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 24H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.8S/52.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 36H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.9S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 48H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/50.2E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 60H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 72H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BROKES THE DVORAK RULES WITH D3.0/24H. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (2 GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANELS AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE DIRECT). IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER. AT 2230UTC SYSTEM'S EYE WAS ABOUT 45 KM IN THE SOUTH CLOSE TO AGALEGA STATION WHERE 10MN WIND WAS ONLY 25KT WITH A MAXIMUM GUST UP TO 40KT, AT 2200UTC SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN AGALEGA WAS 990.1 HPA. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE BEYOND. A PART OF THEM FORECASTS THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS TO THE NORTHERN MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL AND THE OTHER PART FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. .