** WTIO22 FMEE 191203 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 19/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 950 HPA POSITION: 10.7S / 58.5E (TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTEN=DING UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICAN FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/20 AT 00 UTC: 10.6S / 56.2E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2006/12/20 AT 12 UTC: 10.5S / 53.7E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS RAPIDELY INTENSIFYED LAST NIGTH, WITH A BIULDING EYE THIS MORNING. IT REMAINS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS, KEEPING ON INTENSIFYING.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 191203 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 19/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 008/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 19/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (BONDO) 950 HPA POSITION: 10.7S / 58.5E (DIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 180 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. AVIS D'OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN DU CENTRE. AVIS DE TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 90 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 20/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 10.6S / 56.2E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 20/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.5S / 53.7E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: T=CI=5.0+. LE SYSTEME "BONDO" S'EST RAPIDEMMENT INTENSIFIE EN COURS DE NUIT DERNIERE AVEC LA FORMATION D'UN OEIL EN COURS DE MATINEE. IL RESTE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE ET DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE GENERALEMENT VERS L'OUEST EN CONTINUANT DE S'INTENSIFIER. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 191204 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/19 AT 1200 UTC : 10.7S / 58.5E (TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.5S/53.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.4S/51.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/48.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 12.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS RAPIDELY INTENSIFYED LAST NIGTH, WITH A BIULDING EYE THIS MORNING (CF IMAGE WINDSAT 0154Z). DUE TO ETABLISHMENT OF A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANEL EQUATORWARDS, AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE DIRECT. SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS BEEN REANALYSED FROM 18 AT 18UTC, AND DVORAK RULES BROKEN IT REMAINS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING, THEN SOUTHWESTWRADS AT THE END OF FORCAST.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 191203 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 19/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 950 HPA POSITION: 10.7S / 58.5E (TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTEN=DING UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICAN FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/20 AT 00 UTC: 10.6S / 56.2E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2006/12/20 AT 12 UTC: 10.5S / 53.7E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS RAPIDELY INTENSIFYED LAST NIGTH, WITH A BIULDING EYE THIS MORNING. IT REMAINS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS, KEEPING ON INTENSIFYING. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 191204 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/19 AT 1200 UTC : 10.7S / 58.5E (TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.5S/53.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.4S/51.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/48.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 12.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS RAPIDELY INTENSIFYED LAST NIGTH, WITH A BIULDING EYE THIS MORNING (CF IMAGE WINDSAT 0154Z). DUE TO ETABLISHMENT OF A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANEL EQUATORWARDS, AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE DIRECT. SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS BEEN REANALYSED from 18 at 18utc, AND dVORAK RULES BROKEN IT REMAINS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING, THEN SOUTHWESTWRADS AT THE END OF FORCAST. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 191500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180121ZDEC2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 58.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 58.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 10.6S 55.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 10.6S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 10.5S 50.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 10.4S 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 57.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 835 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S WILL INTENSIFY AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//