** WTIO20 FMEE 181817 ***
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/12/2006
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY    18/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 998 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 61.6E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES  SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, BUT
EXTENDS
UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT  AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30
NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/12/19 AT 06 UTC:
11.0S / 59.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2006/12/19 AT 18 UTC:
11.0S / 57.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM  IS GETTING GRADUALLY ORGANIZED WITHIN A FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS,
INTENSIFYING.=


** WTIO20 FMEE 181817 ***
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/12/2006 AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY    18/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 998 HPA 
POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 61.6E 
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES  SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, BUT EXTENDS
UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT  AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/12/19 AT 06 UTC: 
11.0S / 59.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2006/12/19 AT 18 UTC: 
11.0S / 57.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM  IS GETTING GRADUALLY ORGANIZED WITHIN A FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS,
INTENSIFYING.


.


** WTIO30 FMEE 181817 ***
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/3/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 61.6E 
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/19 06 UTC: 11.0S/59.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2006/12/19 18 UTC: 11.0S/57.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2006/12/20 06 UTC: 11.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 11.4S/53.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 11.7S/52.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 11.9S/51.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
RECENT ANIMATED METEOSAT INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOW AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE. IT IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS 1538Z) DEPICTING A CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, GIVING A GOOD DIVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS, LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OPTIMUM DUE TO A RATHER WEAK MONSOON FLOW. 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, FOLLOWING A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.


.


** WTIO21 FMEE 181817 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 18/12/2006 A 1800 UTC.
NUMERO: 005/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 18/12/2006 A 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENE:         DEPRESSION TROPICALE 3 998 HPA 
POSITION:          DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.0S / 61.6E 
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO  SUD ET SOIXANTE ET UN DEGRES SIX EST) A 1800 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       OUEST 11 KT
 
ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU
'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST.

GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR
 DU CENTRE.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 19/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 
11.0S / 59.3E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.
A 24H POUR LE 19/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 
11.0S / 57.2E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LE SYSTEME S'ORGANISE PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE. IL
 EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DE L'OUEST, EN S'INTENSIFIANT.


.


** WTIO30 FMEE 181817 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/3/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 61.6E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/19 06 UTC: 11.0S/59.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2006/12/19 18 UTC: 11.0S/57.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2006/12/20 06 UTC: 11.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 11.4S/53.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 11.7S/52.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 11.9S/51.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
RECENT ANIMATED METEOSAT INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOW AN IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE. IT IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS 1538Z) DEPICTING A
CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, GIVING A GOOD DIVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS, LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OPTIMUM DUE TO A RATHER WEAK MONSOON FLOW.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS,
FOLLOWING A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.=


** WTIO30 FMEE 181817 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/3/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 61.6E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/19 06 UTC: 11.0S/59.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2006/12/19 18 UTC: 11.0S/57.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2006/12/20 06 UTC: 11.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 11.4S/53.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 11.7S/52.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 11.9S/51.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
RECENT ANIMATED METEOSAT INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOW AN IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE. IT IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS 1538Z) DEPICTING A
CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, GIVING A GOOD DIVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS, LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OPTIMUM DUE TO A RATHER WEAK MONSOON FLOW.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS,
FOLLOWING A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.=


** WTPQ20 BABJ 181800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS TRAMI 0624 (0623) INITIAL TIME 181800 UTC
00HR 16.7N 134.7E 996HPA 18M/S
30KTS 190KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 17.6N 129.8E 994HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 18.0N 126.8E 990HPA 23M/S
P+72HR 18.5N 123.6E 990HPA 23M/S=


** WTJP21 RJTD 181800 ***
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0623 TRAMI (0623) 1002 HPA
AT 16.3N 134.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 15.9N 131.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 15.6N 127.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 15.5N 124.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


** WTPQ20 RJTD 181800 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 0623 TRAMI (0623)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  181800UTC 16.3N 134.9E POOR
MOVE  NNW SLOWLY
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT
30KT  180NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  191800UTC 15.9N 131.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE  W 08KT
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT
48HF  201800UTC 15.6N 127.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE  W 08KT
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT
72HF  211800UTC 15.5N 124.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE  W 08KT
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT =


** WTPH RPLL 181800 ***
TTT GALE WARNING 03

AT 1800 18 DECMBER TROPICAL STORM (TRAMI) (0621) WAS ESTIMATED
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 16.4N 134.6E FORECAST TO
MOVE NNW AT 02MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 300KM RADIUS 
NE SEMI-CIRLCE 200KM RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
997 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 
300KM RADIUS NNE SEMI-CIRLCE 200KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST
POSITIONS AT 191800 17.9N 134.0E AT 201800 20.5N 134.1E AND AT
211800 23.8N 136.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD=


** WTPQ20 RJTD 182100 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 0623 TRAMI (0623)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  182100UTC 16.3N 134.9E POOR
MOVE  NNW SLOWLY
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT
30KT  180NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  192100UTC 15.9N 131.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE  W 08KT
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT
45HF  201800UTC 15.6N 127.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE  W 08KT
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT
69HF  211800UTC 15.5N 124.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE  W 08KT
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT =