** WTIO20 FMEE 180608 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 1000 HPA POSITION: 11.0S / 64.0E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, BUT EXTENDS UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 TO 25KT, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/18 AT 18 UTC: 11.1S / 62.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/19 AT 06 UTC: 11.2S / 61.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, WITHIN A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, ACCELERATING.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 180608 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 18/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 003/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 18/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 3 1000 HPA POSITION: 11.0S / 64.0E (ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE SECTEUR EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20 A 25KT, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT AVEC LA DORSALE AU SUD. MER AGITEE A LOCALEMENT FORTE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 18/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 11.1S / 62.8E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 19/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 11.2S / 61.3E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'EST ORGANISE AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT RELATIVEMENT FAVORABLE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE VERS L'OUEST, EN ACCELERANT. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 180608 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 1000 HPA POSITION: 11.0S / 64.0E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, BUT EXTENDS UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 TO 25KT, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/18 AT 18 UTC: 11.1S / 62.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/19 AT 06 UTC: 11.2S / 61.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, WITHIN A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, ACCELERATING. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 180609 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 0600 UTC : 11.0S / 64.0E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/18 18 UTC: 11.1S/62.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/19 06 UTC: 11.2S/61.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/19 18 UTC: 11.3S/59.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/12/20 06 UTC: 11.3S/58.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 11.2S/56.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 11.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE NIGHT: OBVIOUS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON AQUA AT 17/2121Z AND A CURVED BAND ON F13 AT 18/0211Z. EVIDENT DIFFERENCE AS WELL BETWEEN QUIKSCAT 17/1316Z WITH WEAK LLCC AND ELONGATED CENTRE, AND QUIKSCAT 18/0148Z WITH WELL DEFINED LLCC AND STRON GER WINDS. RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SITUATION NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MORE SUSTAINED MOTION. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 180609 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 0600 UTC : 11.0S / 64.0E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/18 18 UTC: 11.1S/62.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/19 06 UTC: 11.2S/61.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/19 18 UTC: 11.3S/59.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/12/20 06 UTC: 11.3S/58.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 11.2S/56.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 11.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE NIGHT: OBVIOUS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON AQUA AT 17/2121Z AND A CURVED BAND ON F13 AT 18/0211Z. EVIDENT DIFFERENCE AS WELL BETWEEN QUIKSCAT 17/1316Z WITH WEAK LLCC AND ELONGATED CENTRE, AND QUIKSCAT 18/0148Z WITH WELL DEFINED LLCC AND STRON GER WINDS. RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SITUATION NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MORE SUSTAINED MOTION.= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180600 *** WARNING 180600. WARNING VALID 190600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0623 TRAMI (0623) 1000 HPA AT 16.0N 135.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.8N 130.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 17.1N 126.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 17.1N 123.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0623 TRAMI (0623) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 16.0N 135.3E POOR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 16.8N 130.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 200600UTC 17.1N 126.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 210600UTC 17.1N 123.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TRAMI 0624 (0623) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC 00HR 16.0N 135.3E 994HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 18.3N 130.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 19.6N 126.3E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 20.6N 124.0E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0623 TRAMI (0623) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 180735 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS- RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA(.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 16.0 DEG N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) === ** WTPN31 PGTW 180900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 134.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 134.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 17.4N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.3N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.2N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 134.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 180447Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE ISOLATED, FLARING DEEP CONVECT- ION OVER A POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0623 TRAMI (0623) ANALYSIS PSTN 180900UTC 16.1N 135.0E POOR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 190900UTC 16.3N 130.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 200600UTC 17.1N 126.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 210600UTC 17.1N 123.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 180600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 01 AT 0600 18 DECEMBER TROPICAL STORM (TRAMI) (0623) WAS BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 190600 ONE EIGHT POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST AT 200600 TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 210600 TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 181021 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST MON DEC 18 2006 ...TRAMI STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 555 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 735 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI MAY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY MORNING. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPH RPLL 180600 *** TTT GALER WARNING 01 AT 0600 18 DECEMBER TROPICAL STORM (TRAMI) ( 0623) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SEC OND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 190600 ONE EIGHT POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST AT 200600 TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 210600 TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHTPOINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA