** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TRAMI 0624 (0623) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 15.5N 136.3E 994HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 16.9N 131.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 17.6N 126.0E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 17.6N 122.0E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0623 TRAMI (0623) ANALYSIS PSTN 180000UTC 15.7N 136.5E POOR MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 190000UTC 16.7N 131.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 200000UTC 17.7N 126.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 210000UTC 18.7N 124.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 180000 *** WARNING 180000. WARNING VALID 190000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0623 TRAMI (0623) 1000 HPA AT 15.7N 136.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 16.7N 131.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 17.7N 126.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 18.7N 124.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 180047 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 2/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 64.5E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, BUT EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15 TO 25KT LIKELY REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/18 AT 12 UTC: 11.1S / 63.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/19 AT 00 UTC: 11.4S / 61.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM REMAINING AT AN EMBRYONIC STAGE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION OBSERVED DURING PAST 12H. CONVECTION STILL FLUCTUATING AND LOOSELY ORGANISED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER EXISTS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 180047 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 2/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 64.5E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, BUT EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15 TO 25KT LIKELY REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/18 AT 12 UTC: 11.1S / 63.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/19 AT 00 UTC: 11.4S / 61.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM REMAINING AT AN EMBRYONIC STAGE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION OBSERVED DURING PAST 12H. CONVECTION STILL FLUCTUATING AND LOOSELY ORGANISED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER EXISTS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 180047 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 18/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 2/3 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 18/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 3 1003 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8S / 64.5E (DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE-QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15 A 25KT POUVANT ATTEINDRE LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT AVEC LA DORSALE AU SUD. MER AGITEE A LOCALEMENT FORTE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS .. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 18/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 11.1S / 63.3E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 19/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 11.4S / 61.7E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: SYSTEME TOUJOURS A UN STADE FAIBLE ET D'INTENSITE DEMEUREE PEU OU PROU STATIONNAIRE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 12H. LA CONVECTION DEMEURE FLUCTUANTE ET PEU ORGANISEE. UN POTENTIEL DE DEVELOPPEMENT EXISTE MALGRE TOUT. . ** WTKO20 RKSL 180000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0623 TRAMI ANALYSIS POSITION 180000UTC 15.7N 136.5E MOVEMENT NNW 15KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 190000UTC 17.0N 131.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 200000UTC 17.8N 126.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT 72HR POSITION 210000UTC 18.3N 123.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0623 TRAMI (0623) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 180120 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 64.5E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/18 12 UTC: 11.1S/63.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/19 00 UTC: 11.4S/61.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 11.5S/59.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 11.5S/56.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 11.4S/55.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 11.3S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- THE CONVECTION IS WELL REPRESENTED NEAR THE LOW CENTRE BUT REMAINS STILL LOOSELY ORGANISED AT THIS STAGE. NEVERTHELESS SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION DOES EXIST CONSIDERING THE RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NAMELY A SITUATION NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MORE SUSTAINED MOTION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 180120 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 64.5E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/18 12 UTC: 11.1S/63.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/19 00 UTC: 11.4S/61.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 11.5S/59.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 11.5S/56.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 11.4S/55.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 11.3S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- THE CONVECTION IS WELL REPRESENTED NEAR THE LOW CENTRE BUT REMAINS STILL LOOSELY ORGANISED AT THIS STAGE. NEVERTHELESS SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION DOES EXIST CONSIDERING THE RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NAMELY A SITUATION NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MORE SUSTAINED MOTION. . ** WTPN31 PGTW 180300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 136.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 136.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.0N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 18.3N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 19.8N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.6N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 135.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 172050Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEALS VERY WEAK WINDS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF TD 26W. FURTHERMORE, THE QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE A LACK OF DEFINITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCU- LATION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF TD 26W ARE EVIDENT ON ALL AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANALYSES. THIS FORECAST IS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS: THE TRACK IS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, AND THE STORM IS DISSIPATED OVER WATER BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 180330 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 130 PM GUAM LST MON DEC 18 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI STILL MOVING AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0623 TRAMI (0623) ANALYSIS PSTN 180300UTC 15.8N 135.8E POOR MOVE NW 13KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 190300UTC 16.7N 131.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 200000UTC 17.7N 126.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 210000UTC 18.7N 124.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT =