** WTIO20 FMEE 171216 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 17/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 65.5E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST ) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND ROUGH TO MODERATE SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/18 AT 00 UTC: 10.7S / 64.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/18 AT 12 UTC: 11.0S / 62.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 171216 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 17/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 65.5E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST ) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND ROUGH TO MODERATE SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/18 AT 00 UTC: 10.7S / 64.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/18 AT 12 UTC: 11.0S / 62.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 171216 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 17/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 001/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 17/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 3 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.3S / 65.5E (DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PRICIPALEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. CIRULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 18/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 10.7S / 64.0E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 18/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 11.0S / 62.0E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION PROGRESSIVE DE CE SYSTEME. A CE STADE, IL NE JUSTIFIE PAS ENCORE L'EMISION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 171238 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 2.A POSITION 2006/12/17 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 65.5E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/18 00 UTC: 10.7S/64.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/18 12 UTC: 11.0S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/19 00 UTC: 10.9S/60.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 10.8S/58.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SINCE LAST NIGHT, EVEN IF IT IS STILL DEPENDANT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 171238 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 2.A POSITION 2006/12/17 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 65.5E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/18 00 UTC: 10.7S/64.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/18 12 UTC: 11.0S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/19 00 UTC: 10.9S/60.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 10.8S/58.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SINCE LAST NIGHT, EVEN IF IT IS STILL DEPENDANT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTJP21 RJTD 171200 *** WARNING 171200. WARNING VALID 181200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0623 TRAMI (0623) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 13.1N 138.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 19 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 14.5N 132.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 15.1N 125.7E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 15.3N 120.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0623 TRAMI (0623) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 171200UTC 13.1N 138.2E POOR MOVE WNW 19KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 181200UTC 14.5N 132.2E 100NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 191200UTC 15.1N 125.7E 170NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 201200UTC 15.3N 120.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 171200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0623 TRAMI ANALYSIS POSITION 171200UTC 13.1N 138.2E MOVEMENT WNW 19KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 181200UTC 14.6N 132.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 191200UTC 15.0N 126.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 201200UTC 15.1N 121.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 171500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 138.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 138.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.2N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.1N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.7N 129.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.2N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.8N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 137.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER WITH A DEVELOP- ING DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 171051Z SSMIS IMAGE INDCATES THAT TD 26W CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TRAMI 0624 (0623) INITIAL TIME 171200 UTC 00HR 13.1N 138.2E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 14.3N 132.2E 992HPA 23M/S P+48HR 14.9N 125.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 15.1N 121.3E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 171455 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST MON DEC 18 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI MOVING AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 490 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND 265 MILES NORTH OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH. A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0623 TRAMI (0623) ANALYSIS PSTN 171500UTC 14.2N 137.9E POOR MOVE NNW 20KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 181500UTC 14.8N 131.4E 100NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 191200UTC 15.1N 125.7E 170NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 201200UTC 15.3N 120.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT =