** WTPQ20 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 170600UTC 12.0N 139.9E POOR MOVE WNW 22KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 180600UTC 13.4N 134.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTIN20 DEMS 170655 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH WEST BAY SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL PARTS OF ARABIAN SEA SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 16.0 DEG N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) === ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 12.0N 139.9E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 170900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 139.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 139.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.3N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.1N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.7N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.8N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 138.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER WITH WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 170403Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THAT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT AND A FAVORABLE ENVIR- ONMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 170900UTC 12.5N 139.0E POOR MOVE NW 20KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 180900UTC 13.5N 133.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 171008 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST SUN DEC 17 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W NEAR CLOSEST APPROACH TO YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND 200 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 23 MPH. A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 23 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST MONDAY MORNING. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPH RPLL 171022 *** GALE WARNING NO.03 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON ISSUED AT 5:00PM TODAY,17 DEC 2006 (VALID UNTIL THE NEXT WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT 5:00 AM TOMORROW) THE SURGE OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WNDS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN WESTERN AND ERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON. HTE NRN WESTERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLDY SKIES WITH SCT RASHS,WHILE THE ERN SEABOARD WILL HAVE CLDY SKIES WITH SCT RASHS WNDS OF 40 TO 72KPH(22 TO 40KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2.50 TO 6.00 METARS FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEA VESSELS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE BIGGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST MOD. TO HIGH WAVES. WATCH FOR THE NEXT UPDATE TO BE ISSUED AT 5:00 AM TOMORROW.=