** WTPQ20 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 170000UTC 09.6N 141.4E POOR MOVE W 20KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 180000UTC 10.5N 137.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.6N 141.4E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 170300UTC 11.0N 140.5E POOR MOVE WNW 20KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 180300UTC 12.6N 134.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 170300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 10.7N 141.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 141.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.2N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.6N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.3N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.6N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 14.3N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 140.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 162253Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 170456 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 PM GUAM LST SUN DEC 17 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 140.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 320 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND 210 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 140.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO