** WTIN20 DEMS 130635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.0 DEG N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 16.7N 112.4E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 17.8N 111.1E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 17.9N 110.3E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 17.6N 109.5E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 130600 *** WARNING 130600. WARNING VALID 140600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 965 HPA AT 16.8N 112.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 17.4N 111.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 17.6N 111.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 17.3N 110.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 16.8N 112.4E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 17.4N 111.8E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 150600UTC 17.6N 111.2E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 160600UTC 17.3N 110.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 130600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TY 0622 UTOR ANALYSIS POSITION 130600UTC 16.8N 112.4E MOVEMENT NW 3KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 140600UTC 17.7N 111.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 150600UTC 17.8N 111.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 160600UTC 17.4N 110.4E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0622 UTOR (0622) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO SOUTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 130700 UTC 00HR 16.8N 112.2E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130600 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130600 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPN31 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 25W (UTOR) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 112.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 112.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.2N 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.6N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.8N 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.9N 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.8N 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 112.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 130800 UTC 00HR 16.9N 112.2E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 130900 UTC 00HR 16.9N 112.1E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 17.9N 111.2E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 17.8N 110.3E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 17.4N 109.5E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 17.0N 112.3E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 17.4N 111.8E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 150600UTC 17.6N 111.2E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 160600UTC 17.3N 110.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 130900 *** WARNING 130900. WARNING VALID 140900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 965 HPA AT 17.0N 112.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 17.4N 111.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 131000 UTC 00HR 17.0N 112.1E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 131100 UTC 00HR 17.1N 112.1E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H=