** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0621) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 16.4N 112.7E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 111.1E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 17.8N 110.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 17.7N 109.2E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 130000 *** WARNING 130000. WARNING VALID 140000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 955 HPA AT 16.5N 112.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 17.7N 111.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 18.0N 111.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 17.2N 110.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 16.5N 112.7E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 17.7N 111.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 150000UTC 18.0N 111.3E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 160000UTC 17.2N 110.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0622 UTOR (0622) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO SOUTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 130100 UTC 00HR 16.5N 112.5E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 130200 UTC 00HR 16.5N 112.4E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 25W (UTOR) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 112.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 112.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.9N 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 17.3N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.5N 111.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.7N 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.7N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 112.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 130300 UTC 00HR 16.5N 112.4E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 16.6N 112.5E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 17.4N 111.8E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 150000UTC 18.0N 111.3E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 160000UTC 17.2N 110.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 130300 *** WARNING 130300. WARNING VALID 140300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 955 HPA AT 16.6N 112.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 17.4N 111.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 130400 UTC 00HR 16.5N 112.4E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 130500 UTC 00HR 16.6N 112.4E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H=