** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 15.5N 114.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 16.9N 111.5E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 17.3N 110.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 17.6N 109.2E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121200 *** WARNING 121200. WARNING VALID 131200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 945 HPA AT 15.5N 114.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 17.2N 112.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 18.2N 111.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 17.5N 110.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 121200UTC 15.5N 114.0E GOOD MOVE NW 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 131200UTC 17.2N 112.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 141200UTC 18.2N 111.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 151200UTC 17.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 25W (UTOR) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 113.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 113.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 16.2N 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.8N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 17.2N 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.5N 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.4N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.9N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.6N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 113.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 121500 UTC 00HR 15.8N 113.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 121500UTC 15.8N 113.6E GOOD MOVE NW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 131500UTC 17.3N 112.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 141200UTC 18.2N 111.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 151200UTC 17.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 121500 *** WARNING 121500. WARNING VALID 131500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 945 HPA AT 15.8N 113.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 17.3N 112.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.