** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 14.8N 114.9E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.4N 112.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 17.5N 111.0E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 17.8N 110.5E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 14.8N 114.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 15.8N 112.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 140600UTC 16.4N 110.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 150600UTC 17.1N 109.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 120600 *** WARNING 120600. WARNING VALID 130600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 955 HPA AT 14.8N 114.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 15.8N 112.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 16.4N 110.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 17.1N 109.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0622 UTOR (0622) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 120600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0622 UTOR ANALYSIS POSITION 120600UTC 14.8N 114.8E MOVEMENT WNW 9KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 130600UTC 16.1N 112.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 140600UTC 16.9N 110.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 150600UTC 17.4N 110.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 120745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120600 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 120745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120600 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 120900 UTC 00HR 15.2N 114.4E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.0N 111.8E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 17.5N 110.8E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 17.9N 109.7E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 15.2N 114.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 16.2N 112.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 140600UTC 16.4N 110.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 150600UTC 17.1N 109.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 120900 *** WARNING 120900. WARNING VALID 130900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 955 HPA AT 15.2N 114.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 16.2N 112.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120900 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120900 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.