** WTPQ20 BABJ 111800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC 00HR 13.9N 116.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.9N 113.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 16.9N 111.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 18.2N 111.9E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 111800UTC 13.8N 116.8E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 121800UTC 14.9N 113.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 131800UTC 16.1N 111.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 141800UTC 17.3N 109.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 111800 *** WARNING 111800. WARNING VALID 121800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 970 HPA AT 13.8N 116.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 14.9N 113.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 16.1N 111.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 17.3N 109.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 110600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 11.0 DEG .N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTKO20 RKSL 111800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0622 UTOR ANALYSIS POSITION 111800UTC 13.8N 116.8E MOVEMENT WNW 3KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 121800UTC 15.1N 113.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 131800UTC 16.4N 110.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 141800UTC 17.3N 109.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 49KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 111945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111800 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 111945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111800 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 112100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 25W (UTOR) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 116.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 116.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.7N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.5N 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.2N 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.8N 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.4N 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.0N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.2N 109.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 116.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS REPRESENTS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BEYOND THE TAU 72, A DE-COUPLING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE STORM DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 111800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1800 11 DECEMBER TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATEL- LITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.9N 116.8E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH- WEST AT 08MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 300KM RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KM RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 33MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KM RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KM RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRLCE 250KM RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 121800 15.2N 113.9E AND AT 131800 16.3N 111.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 112100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 112100UTC 13.9N 116.2E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 122100UTC 15.1N 113.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 131800UTC 16.1N 111.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 141800UTC 17.3N 109.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 112100 *** WARNING 112100. WARNING VALID 122100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 970 HPA AT 13.9N 116.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 15.1N 113.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 112245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 112100 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 112245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 112100 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.