** WTPQ20 BABJ 091800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 091800 UTC 00HR 12.0N 122.9E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 12.3N 119.1E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 12.8N 115.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 13.3N 113.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 091800UTC 12.1N 122.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 101800UTC 12.2N 119.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 111800UTC 12.7N 115.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 121800UTC 13.2N 112.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 091800 *** WARNING 091800. WARNING VALID 101800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 975 HPA AT 12.1N 122.7E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 12.2N 119.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 12.7N 115.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 13.2N 112.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 091800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0622 UTOR ANALYSIS POSITION 091800UTC 12.1N 122.7E MOVEMENT WNW 13KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 101800UTC 12.3N 119.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 111800UTC 12.8N 115.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 121800UTC 13.7N 112.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 091945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 091800 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (11.9 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 101800 UTC ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (12.3 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111800 UTC ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (12.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 092100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 25W (UTOR) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 122.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 122.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 12.6N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 12.9N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 13.1N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 13.5N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.5N 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.5N 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.7N 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 122.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 092100 *** WARNING 092100. WARNING VALID 102100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 975 HPA AT 12.1N 122.2E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 12.2N 118.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 092100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 092100UTC 12.1N 122.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 102100UTC 12.2N 118.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 111800UTC 12.7N 115.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 121800UTC 13.2N 112.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 091800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1800 09 DECEMBER TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SSURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI- CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101800 ONE THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE EAST AT 111800 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 121800 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 092245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 092100 UTC, TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (12.1 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 102100 UTC ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (12.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 112100 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. ** WTPH RPLL 091800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1800 09 DECEMBER TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI- CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101800 ONE THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE EAST AT 111800 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 121800 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA