** WTIN20 DEMS 090606 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-12-2006 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH WEST BAY OF BANGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA(.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.0 DEG N OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 090600 UTC 00HR 11.3N 125.5E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 11.9N 120.7E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 12.5N 116.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 13.4N 114.7E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 090600 *** WARNING 090600. WARNING VALID 100600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 970 HPA AT 11.3N 125.4E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 11.3N 121.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 11.2N 118.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 11.7N 114.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 090600UTC 11.3N 125.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 100600UTC 11.3N 121.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 110600UTC 11.2N 118.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 120600UTC 11.7N 114.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0622 UTOR (0622) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO WITHIN 6 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUOUSLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 090600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0622 UTOR ANALYSIS POSITION 090600UTC 11.3N 125.4E MOVEMENT WNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 100600UTC 11.7N 120.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 110600UTC 11.8N 117.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 120600UTC 12.2N 114.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 090900UTC 11.5N 124.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 100900UTC 11.5N 120.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 110600UTC 11.2N 118.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 120600UTC 11.7N 114.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 090900 *** WARNING 090900. WARNING VALID 100900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 970 HPA AT 11.5N 124.7E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 11.5N 120.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 090600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 0600 09 DECEMBER TYPHOON UTOR {0622} WAS LOCATED BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100600 ONE ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX EAST AT 110600 ONE TWO POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO EAST AND AT 120600 ONE TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA = WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPH RPLL 090600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 0600 09 DECEMBER TYPHOON UTOR (0622) WAS LOCATED BASED OF RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WIHTIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100600 ONE ONE POINT SIX NORT ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX EAST AT 110600 ONE TWO POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE POINT SEVEN POINT TWO EAST AND AT 120600 ONE TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD