** WTPQ20 BABJ 090000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 090000 UTC 00HR 11.0N 126.6E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 290KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 12.2N 121.3E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 12.9N 117.3E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 13.7N 115.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 090000UTC 10.8N 126.6E GOOD MOVE W 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 100000UTC 11.2N 121.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 110000UTC 11.1N 117.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 120000UTC 11.1N 114.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 090000 *** WARNING 090000. WARNING VALID 100000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 10.8N 126.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 11.2N 121.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 11.1N 117.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 11.1N 114.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0622 UTOR (0622) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 12 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUOUSLY STAY ON LAND TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 090300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 25W (UTOR) WARNING NR 009 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 25W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 126.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 126.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 11.2N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 11.6N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 11.9N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 12.2N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 13.0N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.0N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.4N 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 125.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. // ** WTJP31 RJTD 090300 *** WARNING 090300. WARNING VALID 100300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0622 UTOR (0622) 970 HPA AT 11.0N 126.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 11.1N 120.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 090300UTC 11.0N 126.0E GOOD MOVE W 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 100300UTC 11.1N 120.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 110000UTC 11.1N 117.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 120000UTC 11.1N 114.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH RPLL 090000 *** TTT WARNING 08 AT 0000 09 DECMBER TYPHOON UTOR (0622) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NROTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WIDNS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100000 ONE ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR EAST AT 110000 ONE TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT THREE EAST AND AT 120000 LNE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD